The Nuggets have a chance to close out this first-round series with the Lakers tonight, as they lead the series 3-1 heading into game five. Tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET from Ball Arena in Denver. TNT is carrying the game on TV. The over/under line is at 217 points, and the Nuggets are favored by 7.5. The money line odds are +242 for a Lakers win and -301 for the Nuggets.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS DENVER NUGGETS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +7.5

This game will be played at Ball Arena at 10:00 ET on Monday, April 29th.

WHY BET THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 119-114 in favor of the Lakers.
  • Our projections have LeBron James finishing with LeBron James points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Lakers finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.1% and knocking down 14 threes.

The Lakers picked up an 11-point win in the most recent game of this series, taking the game 119-108. Los Angeles was actually a 3.5-point underdog going into the game, so they also covered the spread. The Lakers got off to a good start, outscoring the Nuggets 28-23 in the 1st and 33-25 in the 2nd. The over/under line for the game was set at 220 points, and the teams combined for 227 points.

LeBron James had 30 points to lead all scorers, and he also added 4 assists and 5 rebounds. Anthony Davis had a big game on the boards with 23 rebounds to go along with his 25 points. Nikola Jokic had a triple-double for the Nuggets with 33 points, 14 assists, and 14 rebounds. Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. combined for 60 of the Nuggets’ 108 points.

Will the Los Angeles Defense Show Up on the Road?

In games where the Lakers have been the underdog this season, the average scoring margin for the games is -4 points per game. Today, the O/U line is set at 217, and the Lakers have a record of 17-24 as the underdog this season (21-20 ATS).

On the road, the Lakers have an average scoring differential of -3.4 points per game. Their road record is 20-23 straight-up and 20-23 ATS. At home, they are 29-15 compared to 20-23 on the road.

The Lakers’ O/U record for the season is 49-38, and their games have averaged 234.3 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 217 is lower than their season average of 231.8.

In their last game against the Nuggets, the Lakers won 119-108 as 3.5-point underdogs. The O/U line for that game was 220, and the Lakers covered the spread.

Overall, the Lakers are 47-35 this season, which is good for 3rd place in the Pacific Division. In the Western Conference, they are 7th. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 27-25 and 20-10 in non-conference games.

Los Angeles is averaging 118 points per game this season, which is the 7th best mark in the league. Their scoring average on the road is 116.1 points per contest, which is the 6th best figure in the NBA. In terms of pace, the Lakers are the 4th fastest team in the league. Looking at their team shooting percentage, the Lakers have hit 49% of their shots from the field, which is the 3rd best mark in the NBA.

Anthony Davis is averaging 28.4 points and 15.6 rebounds in his last five games. This has come while hitting 58.2% of his shots from the field. Lebron James is averaging 26.4 points and 8.4 assists in his last five games. For the season, James has hit 41% of his three-point attempts. D’Angelo Russell is averaging 18 points and 6.3 assists for the season, while Austin Reaves is averaging 16.2 points and 4 assists in his last five games.

When it comes to their defensive numbers, the Lakers have struggled this season. They are 23rd in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.9. On the road, they are giving up 119.5 points per contest (24th).

One area where Los Angeles has been strong is on the defensive glass. They are 2nd in the league in defensive rebounds at 35.4 per game. The Lakers are also 11th in blocked shots at 5.5 per contest.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Lakers are giving up 37.1% from beyond the arc (28th). Opponents are averaging 14.0 made threes per game against Los Angeles.

Can Denver Grab a Win at Home?

The Nuggets have an overall record of 57-25 this season, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they went 24-6 compared to 33-19 against the West.

At home, the Nuggets are 35-8 this season, and they are favored by 7.5 points today. Their straight-up record as the favorite is 55-20, and they have won six straight games at home.

In terms of their ATS record, the Nuggets are 40-44 overall and 22-20 at home. As the favorite, they are 34-39 ATS and have failed to cover in their last two games as the favorite.

In their last game against the Lakers, the Nuggets lost by a score of 119-108. The O/U line for that game was 220 points, and they were favored by 3.5 points going into the game.

This season, the average O/U line in Nuggets games is 225.5 points, and their games have averaged a combined 224 points. The team’s O/U record for the season is 35-49-2.

Overall, the Nuggets are the 13th ranked scoring offense this season, at 114.9 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, they are the 4th best team, connecting on 49% of their shots. Denver’s three-point shooting percentage of 37% is just 25th in the league.

Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.4 points and 12.4 rebounds for the season. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26.2 points, 15.2 rebounds, and 9 assists. This has come while shooting 60.2% from the field. Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 16.7 points for the season but 20 points per game over his last five games.

When it comes to defense, the Nuggets have been one of the best in the NBA this season. They are currently 6th in the league in points allowed per game at 109.5. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 11th at 107.4 points per game allowed.

Denver has been particularly effective at defending the three-point line, ranking 2nd in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.1%. In terms of steals, they are 22nd in the league at 7.1 per game. However, they are 10th in blocked shots at 5.6 per game.

One area where the Nuggets have struggled this season is sending opponents to the free-throw line. They are 19th in the league in free throws made allowed per game at 21.9. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 6th at 13.4 made free throws allowed per game.