Game four of this first-round Eastern Conference series between the Bucks and Pacers is set for 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Indiana leads the series 2-1 and is favored by 10 points at home. The over/under line is at 216.5 points, and the Pacers are -433 on the money line compared to the Bucks at +335. TNT is carrying the game on TV.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS INDIANA PACERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +10

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 7:00 ET on Sunday, April 28th.

WHY BET THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 110-108 in favor of the Pacers.
  • Our projections have Pascal Siakam finishing with Pascal Siakam points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Pacers finishing with a field goal percentage of 51.6% and knocking down 13 threes.

The Pacers picked up a 121-118 win over the Bucks in the most recent game of this series. Indiana jumped out to a big lead in the 1st quarter, outscoring the Bucks 39-22. Going into the game, the Pacers were favored by 6.5 points and didn’t cover the spread. The game did surpass the over/under line of 223 points by 16 points.

Indiana held the Bucks to just 32.3% shooting from three-point range and 10 made threes. Khris Middleton led all scorers with 42 points and 10 rebounds. Myles Turner had 29 points for the Pacers and knocked down four threes. Tyrese Haliburton added a triple-double with 18 points, 16 assists, and 10 rebounds.

Do the Bucks Have What it Takes in Indianapolis?

Milwaukee is 5-12 as the underdog this season and is currently the underdog by 10 points against the Pacers. Their ATS record as the underdog is 8-9, and they have covered the spread in their last two games as the underdog.

The Bucks’ O/U record for the season is 43-42, and the over has hit in their last two games. On average, their games have finished with 235 points this season, and today’s O/U line is 216.5.

In their most recent game, the Bucks lost to the Pacers by a score of 121-118. Milwaukee was getting 6.5 points in that game, giving them an ATS win. The combined scoring in that game was 239 points.

For the season, the Bucks are 49-33 and are currently in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 34-18 compared to 15-15 in non-conference games.

On the road, the Bucks are 18-23 straight up and 17-24 ATS. Their average scoring differential on the road is -1.3 points per game.

Looking at the Bucks offense, they are averaging 119 points per game this season, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Their average of 116.7 points per game on the road is the 5th best figure in the league. Milwaukee is also a top-6 team in terms of pace this season.

Khris Middleton has shot the ball well for the Bucks lately, hitting 53.7% of his shots from the field in his last five games. This has led to an average of 23 points per game in that stretch. Over his last four games, Damian Lillard has averaged 28.2 points. For the season, he is averaging 24.3 points and 7 assists. Bobby Portis is averaging 13.8 points and 7.4 rebounds for the Bucks.

So far this season, the Milwaukee Bucks’ defense has struggled, ranking 21st in the NBA in points allowed per game at 116.2. They have been slightly better on the road, giving up 118.0 points per contest away from home (22nd).

One area where the Bucks’ defense has been solid is on the glass, ranking 9th in the league in rebounds per game. They have also been good at protecting the rim, ranking 17th in blocked shots per contest.

In terms of defending the three-point line, Milwaukee is 12th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.3%. Opponents have attempted 35.5 threes per game against the Bucks (18th).

Are the Pacers Ready for a Home Win?

Today’s game against the Bucks marks the 86th time this season that the Pacers have had an O/U line higher than 216.5. Indiana’s games have averaged 242.9 points per game this season, and their O/U record is 45-40.

Indiana’s last two games have gone over the O/U line, and they are favored by 10 points today. This season, the Pacers have gone 27-18 as the favorite and have an ATS record of 21-24 as the favorite.

In their most recent game against the Bucks, the Pacers won 121-118. Indiana was favored by 6.5 points in that game, giving them an ATS loss. The O/U line for that game was 223 points.

The Pacers are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35. In the Central Division, they are in 3rd place. Against other Eastern Conference teams, the Pacers are 32-20 and 15-15 in non-conference games.

Indiana has won their last two games and will be looking to extend their winning streak to six games at home. The Pacers’ home record for the season is 27-15.

Indiana comes into the game as the top-scoring team in the league, at 123.3 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 125.4 points per contest. The Pacers have also been the most efficient shooting team this season, with a field goal percentage of 50%. In terms of two-point field goal percentage, they are also the best in the league.

Pascal Siakam has been playing well of late for the Pacers, averaging 27.4 points per game in his last five games. This has come while hitting 59.2% of his shots from the field. Myles Turner is also shooting the ball well of late, averaging 23.2 points per game on 53.1% shooting. Bennedict Mathurin is out for the Celtics, who averaged 14.5 points per game and 37.4% shooting from three.

When looking at the Pacers’ defense, it’s clear that they have struggled this season. They are currently ranked 27th in points allowed per game at 119.9. At home, they have been even worse, giving up 118.7 points per contest.

One area where the Pacers have been strong is defending the three-point line. On the season, they are first in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.5%. In terms of made threes allowed per game, they are also first at 10.8.

Despite their struggles, the Pacers have done a good job of not fouling, as they are currently first in personal fouls. However, they have struggled to get stops, as they are 28th in rebounds per game and 28th in defensive rebounds.