Game three of this Western Conference first-round series between the Thunder and Pelicans is set to tip off at 3:30 PM ET at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. The Thunder are up 2-0 in the series and are currently favored by 1 point. The over/under line is sitting at 208 points, and the money line odds are -115 for the Thunder and -106 for the Pelicans. TNT is carrying the game on TV.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS NEW ORLEANS PELICANS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -1

This game will be played at Smoothie King Center at 3:30 ET on Saturday, April 27th.

WHY BET THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 118-112 in favor of the Thunder.
  • Our projections have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Thunder finishing with a field goal percentage of 50.5% and knocking down 14 threes.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder put together a dominant performance in their most recent game against the Pelicans, winning by a score of 124-92. Gilgeous-Alexander was the game’s leading scorer with 33 points, and he also hit 60% of his three-point attempts. Oklahoma City’s defense held New Orleans to just 26.9% shooting from beyond the arc and forced them into only seven made threes.

Heading into the game, the Thunder were favored by 7.5 points and easily covered the spread with their 32-point win. The game’s combined 216 points surpassed the over/under line of 210.5 points. Oklahoma City also shot the ball well, connecting on 48.3% of their threes and making 14 threes as a team.

Will the Thunder Defense Show Up on the Road?

The Thunder are looking to extend their winning streak to 8 games as they take on the Pelicans. In the Western Conference, the Thunder are in 1st place with a record of 57-25.

Oklahoma City has been favored in 63 of their 82 games this season and have a record of 49-14 in those games. As the favorite, they have covered the spread in 36 of those games and have an ATS record of 36-27 as the favorite.

On the road, the Thunder are 24-17 straight up and 20-21 against the spread. Their average scoring differential on the road is +1.9 points per game.

This season, the Thunder have an O/U record of 45-38-1, and their games have averaged a combined 232 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 208, and the Thunder have played to an average of 231.8 points per game.

In their last game, the Thunder defeated the Pelicans by a score of 124-92. They were favored by 7.5 points in that game and easily covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 210.5 points.

Offensively, the Thunder are averaging 120.1 points per game this season, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 122.5 points per contest. Oklahoma City’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 2nd best in the NBA.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 25 points per game over his last five games on a field goal percentage of 49.5%. In these games, he also averaged 4.6 assists and 4.6 rebounds. For the season, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.2 assists, and 5.5 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is averaging 16.5 points and 7.9 rebounds for the season.

So far this season, the Thunder have been one of the better defensive teams in the league, ranking 11th in points allowed per game at 112.2. On the road, they have been slightly worse, giving up 115.2 points per game, which is 15th in the NBA.

Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been even better on the defensive end, allowing just 93.2 points per game, which is the best mark in the league during that stretch. During this stretch, they have also been excellent at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 27% from beyond the arc.

On the season, opponents have scored less than their season average vs. the Thunder in 59.8% of games. However, they have allowed opponents to make more threes than their season average in 57.3% of games.

Will the Pelicans Find a Way to Win at Home?

In their last game, the Pelicans lost to the Thunder by a score of 124-92. The combined scoring total was 216, which was higher than the O/U line of 210.5.

This season, the Pelicans have an O/U record of 38-48, and their games have averaged 224.8 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 208.

At home, the Pelicans are 21-21 against the spread and have an ATS record of 45-40 overall. As the underdog, they are 21-13 vs. the spread.

New Orleans is currently in 8th place in the Western Conference with a record of 49-33. In the Southwest Division, they are in 2nd place.

Against Western Conference teams, the Pelicans are 30-22 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games. As the underdog, they are 18-16 this season.

New Orleans comes into the game as the 16th-ranked scoring team, at 115.1 points per game. For the season, they are also 16th in scoring at home, with an average of 114.4 points per contest. Looking at their pace, the Pelicans are 18th in the league, averaging 97.3 possessions per game.

Brandon Ingram will need to carry the Pelicans offense with Zion Williamson already ruled out. Over his last five games, he is averaging 15.6 points per game on 44.1% shooting. This season, he is averaging 20.8 points, 5.7 assists, and 5.1 rebounds. Trey Murphy III is averaging 4.8 rebounds in his last five games and 13.6 points.

When playing at home this season, the Pelicans’ defense has been solid, ranking 12th in the NBA at 111.1 points per game allowed. In terms of three-point shooting, opposing teams have made fewer threes than their season average in 43.9% of games against New Orleans.

Overall, the Pelicans are 8th in the NBA in points per game allowed at 110.5. They are also 3rd in the league in steals per game at 8.3.

One area where the Pelicans’ defense has struggled this season is defending the three-point line. On the year, they are 24th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.0%.