The Lakers will look to avoid a first-round sweep on Saturday night as they host the Nuggets in game four of their first-round series. Denver currently leads the series 3-0 and would advance to the second round with a win. Tip-off for this matchup is at 8:30 PM ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. ABC has the TV coverage, and the Nuggets are favored by 3.5 points and are -164 on the money line. The Lakers are at +137, and the over/under line is at 218.5 points.

DENVER NUGGETS VS LOS ANGELES LAKERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +3.5

This game will be played at Crypto.com Arena at 8:30 ET on Saturday, April 27th.

WHY BET THE LOS ANGELES LAKERS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 118-115 in favor of the Lakers.
  • Our projections have LeBron James finishing with LeBron James points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Lakers finishing with a field goal percentage of 48.5% and knocking down 14 threes.

Denver picked up a 112-105 win in the most recent game of this Nuggets vs. Lakers series. The Nuggets were 1.5-point underdogs heading into the game and easily covered the spread. Going into the game, the over/under line was at 217.5 points, and the teams combined to score 217 points, just missing the over.

Denver’s defense was able to hold the Lakers to just 5 made threes on 18.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 33 points, and LeBron James added 26. Aaron Gordon led all scorers with 29 points and also pulled down 15 rebounds. The Nuggets hit just five threes of their own and shot 17.9% from three-point range.

Can the Nuggets Offense Score Enough in Los Angeles?

Today, the Nuggets are favored by 3.5 points against the Lakers. This season, Denver has been the favorite in 74 of their 82 games. As the favorite, they have gone 55-19 straight up and 34-38 against the spread.

In the Western Conference, the Nuggets finished with the 2nd-best record at 57-25. In non-conference games, they went 24-6 compared to 33-19 against the West.

On the road, the Nuggets have an average scoring margin of +0.9 points per game. They are 25-17 on the road and have won their last two ATS on the road.

The Nuggets have won four straight games and covered the spread in three straight as the favorite. In their most recent game against the Lakers, they won 112-105 as 1.5-point underdogs.

This season, the Nuggets have an O/U record of 34-49-2. Their games have averaged a combined 224 points per game, which is lower than today’s line of 218.5.

In their last game, the Nuggets and Lakers combined for 217 points, which was below the O/U line of 217.5. Denver won the game by a score of 112-105.

Denver comes into the game as the NBA’s 13th ranked scoring offense, at 114.9 points per game. At home, they have been much better, averaging 118 points per game. On the road, they have averaged 111.2 points per contest. Looking at their field goal percentage of 49%, the Nuggets are the 4th most efficient shooting team in the league.

Nikola Jokic has been carrying the Nuggets offense of late, averaging 24 points per game over his last five games. This has come while shooting 64.5% from the field. Jamal Murray has also been at 24 points per game in his last five games and 2.6 made threes. For the season, he is averaging 2.5 made threes per game on a shooting percentage of 42.5%.

When it comes to defense, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the best units in the NBA this season, allowing just 109.3 points per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been especially tough on the road, where they are giving up just 110.3 points per contest, which is 5th in the league.

One of the reasons the Nuggets have been so good defensively is their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, they are 2nd in the NBA in three-point field goal percentage allowed at 35.2%. In terms of three-point attempts allowed per game, Denver is 2nd in the league at 31.4.

Over their last five games, the Nuggets have been even better at defending the three-point line, holding opponents to just 31.8% from beyond the arc. In terms of overall field goal percentage allowed in their last five games, Denver is 24th in the NBA at 49%.

Does Los Angeles Have a Shot at a Home Win?

Today, the Lakers are looking to snap a three-game losing streak, and they are currently 7th in the Western Conference with a record of 47-35. In the Pacific Division, they are 3rd.

As the underdog, the Lakers have gone 16-24 this season, and they are 20-20 against the spread as the underdog. Their ATS record as the home team is 20-23, and they have failed to cover the spread in three straight home games.

On average, Lakers games have finished with 234.4 points this season, and their O/U record is 48-38. In their last four games, the under has hit, and today’s O/U line is 218.5.

In their most recent game, the Lakers lost to the Nuggets by a score of 112-105. They were favored by 1.5 points going into the game, and their ATS record as the favorite is 20-26.

The Lakers have gone 40-46 against the spread this season, including a record of 20-23 ATS at home. In non-conference games, they are 20-10 compared to 27-25 against Western Conference opponents.

For the season, the Lakers are 7th in the league in scoring, at 118 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 118.7 points per contest. Los Angeles is also near the top of the league in pace, averaging 101.2 possessions per game. Looking at their three-point shooting, the Lakers are 30th in three-point attempts and 24th in makes. Despite this, they are 9th in three-point shooting percentage, at 37%.

Anthony Davis has been playing well of late, averaging 29.4 points per game over his last five games. This has come while hitting 60.2% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also pulled down 13.2 rebounds. Lebron James has averaged 26 points per game in his last five games, and for the season, he has hit 41% of his shots from beyond the arc. D’Angelo Russell is averaging 18 points for the season, and his three-point shooting percentage is 41.5%.

On the season, the Lakers are giving up 117.0 points per game, which is 23rd in the league. At home, they are allowing 114.5 points per game, which is 18th in the NBA. In their last five games, they have been even better on the defensive end, giving up just 108.2 points per game, which is 12th in the league during that stretch.

One area where the Lakers have been strong all season is at the free-throw line. They are 2nd in the league in made free throws allowed per game at 17.9. In their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 12.2 made free throws per game, which is 3rd in the NBA over that stretch.

Overall, opponents have hit 37.2% of their threes vs. the Lakers this season, which is 28th in the league. However, in their last five games, they have been much better, holding opponents to just 29.5% shooting from beyond the arc, which is 3rd in the NBA during that stretch.