The Timberwolves and Suns head to Phoenix for game three of this first-round series with Minnesota holding a 2-0 lead. The Suns are favored by four points at home and are -183 on the money line. The Timberwolves are +152, and the over/under line is 206.5. ESPN is carrying the game at 10:30 PM ET from Footprint Center.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS PHOENIX SUNS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +4

This game will be played at Footprint Center at 10:30 ET on Friday, April 26th.

WHY BET THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 114-113 in favor of the Suns.
  • Our projections have Kevin Durant finishing with Kevin Durant points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Suns finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.0% and knocking down 15 threes.

The Timberwolves picked up a 105-93 win over the Suns in the most recent game of this series. Minnesota was favored by three points heading into the game and covered the spread. The over/under line was at 211.5 points, and the teams fell 13.5 points short of that combined total. The Timberwolves got off to a slow start offensively, scoring just 24 points in the first quarter.

Jaden McDaniels led all scorers with 25 points and also had eight rebounds and three assists. Mike Conley added 18 points and hit three threes. The Timberwolves held the Suns to just eight made threes on 36.4% shooting from deep. Devin Booker led the Suns with 20 points.

Will Minnesota Pull Through as the Underdog Road Team?

Minnesota has an O/U record of 43-41 this season, and today’s line of 206.5 is lower than their season average of 220.8. In their games this year, the Timberwolves have averaged a combined 219.2 points.

Currently, Minnesota is 9-10 as the underdog this season and has lost two straight games as the underdog vs. the spread. As the underdog, their scoring margin is -0.7 points per game.

The Timberwolves’ most recent game was also against the Suns, which they won by a score of 105-93. Minnesota covered the spread in that game, going in as 3-point favorites.

Minnesota’s ATS record for the season is 42-41, including a road ATS record of 22-18. As the underdog, they are 11-8 vs. the spread on the road.

Minnesota’s win over the Suns improved their overall record to 56-26, which is currently 3rd in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, they are 19-11 compared to 37-15 against the West.

Minnesota comes into the game averaging 113 points per game this season, which is 18th in the league. Their scoring average on the road is slightly better, at 114 points per game. The Timberwolves have connected on 48% of their shots from the field this season, which is the 9th best mark in the league.

Anthony Edwards has averaged 20 points per game over his last five games while hitting 45.2% of his shots from the field. In these games, he also averaged 5.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged 21.8 points per game this season, to go along with 8.3 rebounds. Rudy Gobert is averaging 12.9 rebounds per game for the Jazz this season.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best in the NBA this season, giving up just 106.2 points per game. That number is even better when they are on the road, as they are allowing just 109.3 points per contest.

Overall, opponents have shot just 45.1% from the field against Minnesota, which is the best mark in the league. They have been especially tough inside, as the Timberwolves are first in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 50.7%.

One area where Minnesota has been vulnerable recently is defending the three-point line. Over their last five games, the Timberwolves are 25th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 39.5%.

Do the Suns Have What it Takes at Home?

This season, the Suns have gone 37-46-1 on the over/under, and their games have averaged 228.9 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 206.5.

Phoenix’s ATS record for the season is 35-48, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last two games. As the favorite, they are 25-35 against the spread and 40-21 straight-up.

In the Western Conference standings, the Suns are currently in 6th place with a record of 49-33. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 29-23 and 9-9 in division play. In non-conference games, they are 20-10.

Phoenix’s last game was also against the Timberwolves, and they lost by a score of 105-93. The Suns were 3-point underdogs heading into the game. The combined scoring total of 198 was well below the O/U line of 211.5.

Phoenix comes into the game as the NBA’s 10th-ranked scoring offense, at 116.2 points per game. When playing at home, they are 13th in the league, averaging 115.8 points per contest. The team’s field goal percentage of 49% is the 5th best mark in the NBA. In terms of pace, the Suns are 16th in the league.

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are both averaging 27.1 points per game this season, which is the 4th best mark in the league. Durant has hit 52.7% of his shots from the field this year and 41.3% of his threes. Bradley Beal has hit 60.9% of his threes in his last five games and 56.4% of his shots overall, leading to an average of 22.2 points per game in this stretch.

At home this season, the Suns are giving up 112.8 points per game, which is 16th in the NBA. However, opposing teams have been held under their season average in 59.8% of games vs. Phoenix. On the year, the Suns are 13th in the league in points allowed per game at 113.2.

Defensively, Phoenix is 8th in rebounds per game and 7th in blocked shots per game. They are also 9th in made free throws allowed per game.

In terms of three-point shooting, opposing teams are making 13.0 threes per game vs. the Suns, which is 18th in the league. Overall, Phoenix is 18th in three-point percentage allowed at 36.3%.