The Heat and Celtics are tied at 1 game apiece in this first-round Eastern Conference series. Game 3 is being played in Miami at the Kaseya Center and is being televised on TNT. Tip-off is at 6:00 PM ET. The Celtics are the 9-point favorites and are -414 on the money line. The Heat are at +321, and the over/under line is 202.5 points.

BOSTON CELTICS VS MIAMI HEAT BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Heat +9

This game will be played at Kaseya Center at 6:00 ET on Saturday, April 27th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI HEAT:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 116-113 in favor of the Celtics.
  • Our projections have Jayson Tatum finishing with Jayson Tatum points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Celtics finishing with a field goal percentage of 48.1% and knocking down 19 threes.

The most recent game of this Heat vs. Celtics series saw Miami come out on top by a score of 111-101. Heading into the game, the Celtics were favored by 14.5 points, but the Heat covered the spread with ease. Miami’s 10-point win also fell 4.5 points short of the over/under line of 205.5 points.

Offensively, the Heat hit 23 threes on 53.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Tyler Herro led the way with 24 points, and he also dished out 14 assists. Jaylen Brown had 33 points for the Celtics, and Jayson Tatum added 28 points.

Can Boston Secure a Road Victory?

In games where the Celtics have been favored this season, their record is 63-17. As the favorite, they are 40-36 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +11.9 points per game.

Boston’s ATS record on the road is 19-20, and they are 27-14 straight-up on the road. On average, they are outscoring their opponents by 7.5 PPG on the road.

The Celtics have an O/U record of 44-39-1 for the season. Their games have averaged a combined 229.3 points per game, and today’s O/U line of 202.5 is lower than all of their previous games.

In their last game against the Heat, the Celtics were favored by 14.5 points but lost by a score of 111-101. The O/U line for that game was 205.5 points.

Boston’s overall record this season is 64-18, which is the best in the Eastern Conference. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 41-11 and 23-7 against the West.

The Celtics are favored by 9 points in today’s game and are looking to avenge their loss to the Heat. In the Eastern Conference, they are currently in 1st place.

Boston comes into the game as the NBA’s 2nd ranked scoring offense, at 120.6 points per game. But they have been below the league average in terms of scoring in 29.3% of their games this season. The Celtics are also the league leaders in both three-point attempts and makes this season, averaging 42.5 attempts and 16.5 makes per game.

Payton Pritchard has been playing well for the Celtics of late, averaging 18.6 points per game in his last five games. This has come while shooting 61.9% from the field. Over this stretch, he hit 2.2 threes per game. Jayson Tatum is averaging 23 points per game in his last three games but just 1.3 threes per game in his last five games.

On the season, the Celtics have been one of the best defensive teams in the league, ranking 5th in points allowed per game at 109.1. They have been especially stingy at home, giving up just 107.7 points per game, which is 4th in the NBA.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 68.3% of games vs. Boston. In terms of three-point shooting, opposing teams have made fewer threes than their season average vs. the Celtics in 50.0% of games.

One area where Boston has excelled defensively is at the free-throw line, as they are giving up just 17.2 made free throws per game, which is tops in the league.

Are the Heat Ready for a Home Win?

Miami has an O/U record of 37-49 this season, and their games have averaged 218 points per game. Today’s O/U line is 202.5, and Miami has not had a game finish with a lower O/U line than that this season.

This season, Miami has gone 12-25 as the underdog and 19-18 ATS as the underdog. In their last five games as the underdog, they have a scoring margin of -3.4 points per game.

In their last game against the Celtics, the Heat won 111-101 as 14.5-point underdogs. The teams combined to score 212 points, and the O/U line for the game was 205.5.

Miami’s ATS record at home this season is 17-25, and they are 23-19 straight up at home. The Heat have won three straight games at home.

Against Eastern Conference teams, the Heat are 32-20 this season and are currently in 8th place in the East. In their last 10 games, Miami is 6-4.

Jimmy Butler is out for the Heat, so they will need Tyler Herro to continue his strong play of late. In his last five games, Herro has averaged 20.2 points per game on 40.7% shooting. He also averaged 8.8 assists in those games. Bam Adebayo is averaging 17 points per game over his last five games while hitting 63.8% of his shots from the field.

Miami is 26th in scoring this season, at 110.1 points per game. At home, they are 22nd in the league, with an average of 112.1 points per contest. Looking at their three-point shooting, the Heat are 10th in the league, hitting 37% of their shots from downtown.

When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best units in the league this season. They are currently ranked 3rd in the NBA, allowing just 108.1 points per game. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 102.8 points per game, which is 3rd in the league during that stretch.

One area where Miami has been particularly strong is at the free-throw line, where they are giving up just 19.2 made free-throws per game, which is 3rd in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better, allowing just 15.2 made free-throws per game, which is 13th in the league during that stretch.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 80.5% of games vs. the Heat this season. Additionally, opposing teams have made fewer threes than their season average in 52.4% of games vs. Miami.