Minnesota heads into game four of this first-round series with a 3-0 lead, and if they win this one, they move on to the second round. Tip-off is at 9:30 PM ET at the Footprint Center in Phoenix. TNT is carrying the game on TV. The over/under line is at 210.5 points, and the Timberwolves are favored by two points. The money line odds are at -130 for the Timberwolves and +108 for the Suns.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS PHOENIX SUNS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -2

This game will be played at Footprint Center at 9:30 ET on Sunday, April 28th.

WHY BET THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 114-111 in favor of the Timberwolves.
  • Our projections have Anthony Edwards finishing with Anthony Edwards points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Timberwolves finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.0% and knocking down 14 threes.

The Timberwolves picked up a big road win in the most recent game of this series, beating the Suns by a score of 126-109. Minnesota was a 5.5-point underdog heading into this game, and they easily covered the spread. The game also went over the over/under line of 209 points, with the teams combining to score 235 points.

Minnesota’s defense was great in this game, holding the Suns to just 46.1% shooting from the field. Bradley Beal knocked down six threes for the Suns and finished with 28 points, while Kevin Durant added 25 points. Anthony Edwards had a big game for the Timberwolves, finishing with 36 points. Rudy Gobert added 19 points and 14 rebounds for Minnesota.

Can the Timberwolves Grab a Win in Phoenix?

In their most recent game, the Timberwolves defeated the Suns by a score of 126-109. The combined scoring total of 235 easily went over the O/U line of 209. Minnesota also covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs.

This season, Minnesota has an O/U record of 44-41, and 79 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 210.5. On average, their games have finished with 219.4 points.

As the favorite, the Timberwolves have gone 49-16 this season and are favored by 2 points today. In games where they have been favored, they have gone 31-33 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +8.9 points per game.

Against Western Conference teams, the Timberwolves have gone 37-15 compared to 19-11 in non-conference games. This has them in 3rd place in the West and 3rd in the Northwest Division.

Minnesota has won three straight games and has an overall record of 56-26. On the road, they are 27-15 while going 23-18 ATS. The Timberwolves have an average scoring differential of +5.0 points per game on the road.

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA’s 18th-ranked scoring team, at 113 points per contest. They have been slightly better on the road this season, at 114.3 points per game, compared to 112 at home. The Timberwolves are among the league leaders in three-point shooting this season but are just 21st in three-point attempts.

Anthony Edwards is averaging 22.2 points per game over his last five games, hitting 46.2% of his shots from the field in that stretch. He also averaged 5.4 assists and 6.6 rebounds in those games. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 21.8 points and 8.3 rebounds for the season, while Naz Reid is at 13.5 points and 5.2 rebounds.

On the season, the Timberwolves have been the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing just 106.3 points per game. They have been even better on the road, giving up just 109.3 points per game away from home.

Minnesota has been able to limit opposing offenses by shutting down the paint. They are first in field goal percentage allowed (45.1%) and second in two-point shooting percentage allowed (50.7%).

Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have been a little worse on defense, giving up 105.6 points per game. During that stretch, they have been particularly vulnerable from beyond the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 38.6% from three.

Can Phoenix Secure a Home Victory?

In terms of their ATS record, the Suns have gone 16-25 at home and 19-24 on the road. Today, they are 2-point underdogs and have an ATS record of 9-14 as underdogs. Their ATS losing streak is at three games.

Phoenix’s O/U record for the season is 38-46-1, and their games have averaged a combined 229 points. Today’s O/U line is set at 210.5, with an average line of 230.2 in their previous games.

Looking at the Western Conference standings, the Suns are in 6th place with a record of 49-33. Against the West, they are 29-23 and 20-10 in non-conference games.

The Suns are coming off a 126-109 loss to the Timberwolves, and they were favored by 5.5 points in that game. This loss was their 3rd straight, and they are 2-3 against the Timberwolves this season.

In their previous games as the underdog, the Suns have an ATS record of 10-13, going 9-14 straight-up. As the underdog, they have gone 10-13 ATS.

Looking at Kevin Durant’s last five games, he is averaging 23.4 points per game on 50% shooting. In these games, he hit 1.4 threes per contest. For the season, Durant is averaging 27.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5 assists. Bradley Beal is averaging 18.2 points for the season but 22.6 over his last five games on a shooting percentage of 56.2%.

Phoenix is the 13th ranked home scoring team this season, at 115.7 points per game. Overall, they are 11th in scoring at 116.2 points per contest. The Suns are among the league leaders in field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, and three-point shooting percentage.

When it comes to defense, the Phoenix Suns have been a middle-of-the-pack team this season, ranking 15th in the NBA at 113.3 points per game allowed. They have been slightly better at home, giving up 113.1 points per game, which is 16th in the league.

One area where Phoenix has excelled defensively is in the paint, as they are 6th in the NBA in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 53.3%. Overall, they have blocked the 6th most shots in the league this season at 6 per game.

Over their last five games, the Suns have seen their opponents shoot 47.9% from the field. However, they have been able to limit three-point shooting during that stretch, holding teams to just 35% shooting from beyond the arc.