Game four of this first-round Eastern Conference series between the Celtics and Heat is set for 7:30 PM ET at the Kaseya Center in Miami. Boston leads the series 2-1 and is favored by 10.5 points on the road. The over/under line is sitting at 203.5 points, and the Celtics are -517 on the money line. The Heat are at +389, and the game is being televised on TNT.

BOSTON CELTICS VS MIAMI HEAT BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Heat +10.5

This game will be played at Kaseya Center at 7:30 ET on Monday, April 29th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI HEAT:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 116-111 in favor of the Celtics.
  • Our projections have Jayson Tatum finishing with Jayson Tatum points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Celtics finishing with a field goal percentage of 48.6% and knocking down 19 threes.

The Celtics picked up a 20-point win over the Heat in the most recent game of this series, winning 104-84. Boston was favored by 9.5 points going into the game, and they easily covered the spread. The over/under line for the game was 205 points, and the teams fell 17 points short of that mark. The Celtics got off to a fast start, outscoring the Heat 21-12 in the first quarter.

Boston’s defense was the story of this game, as they held the Heat to just 41.6% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum each had 22 points for the Celtics, and Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 20 points.

Do the Celtics Have What it Takes on the Road?

Boston is currently 1st in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. Against the East, they are 41-11 and 23-7 against non-conference opponents. On the road, the Celtics are 28-14 compared to 38-5 at home.

As the favorite this season, Boston has gone 64-17 and is favored by 10.5 points today. In their last two games as the favorite, they have covered the spread. Overall, their ATS record is 43-38 and 20-20 on the road.

In their 104-84 win over the Heat, the Celtics were favored by 9.5 points. The O/U line for that game was 205, and the teams combined for 188 points. This season, Boston has an average O/U line of 228.4 and their games have averaged 228.8 points.

For the season, Boston has an O/U record of 44-40-1. In their previous games, 85 of them have had higher over/under lines than today’s line of 203.5.

Looking at Boston’s season-long numbers, they are the NBA’s top three-point shooting team, both in terms of three-point attempts and three-point makes. For the year, they are averaging 16.5 made threes per game on 42.5 attempts. The Celtics’ offense is also near the top of the league in scoring, at 120.6 points per contest.

Payton Pritchard has been playing well for the Celtics of late, averaging 16.8 points per game in his last five games while shooting 63.6% from the field. Over his last three games, Jayson Tatum has averaged 24.3 points and 9.7 rebounds. Jaylen Brown is averaging 24 points per game this season and 23 points per game for the year.

So far this season, the Boston Celtics have been one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 5th in points allowed per game at 108.8. They have been even better on the road, allowing just 109.9 points per game, which is 4th in the league.

One reason for their defensive success has been their ability to protect the rim, as they are 1st in the NBA in blocked shots at 6.6 per game. They have also done a good job of not fouling, ranking 29th in personal fouls.

When it comes to defending the three-point line, the Celtics have been average, allowing opponents to shoot 35.1% from beyond the arc. However, they have done a good job of limiting three-point attempts, ranking 23rd in the NBA in three-point attempts allowed per game at 36.7.

Will the Heat Defense Show Up at Home?

Miami is currently 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 46-36. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place. Today, they are 10.5-point underdogs at home against the Celtics.

This season, Miami has gone 12-26 as the underdog and has an ATS record of 19-19 in those games. As the underdog, they have a scoring margin of -3.8 points per game.

In the Eastern Conference, the Heat have gone 32-20 compared to 14-16 against the West. On average, their games have scored 217.7 points per game, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 203.5.

In their last game against the Celtics, Miami lost by a score of 104-84. They were 9.5-point underdogs in that game, and the O/U line was 205.

This season, Miami has an O/U record of 37-50, and their games have averaged 219.9 points per game. In their last game, the Heat and Celtics combined for 188 points, which was below the O/U line of 205.

The Heat are 17-26 ATS at home this season and have an average scoring margin of +1.9 points per game. Their overall ATS record is 43-41, and they are 26-25 ATS on the road.

Miami comes into the game as the 27th-ranked scoring offense, at 110.1 points per game. They are even worse at home, averaging 111.5 points per contest on their home floor. The Heat are near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.

Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier will both be out for tonight’s game. Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game this season, to go along with 5 assists and 5.3 rebounds. Rozier is averaging 19.8 points and 5.6 assists. Over his last five games, Tyler Herro is averaging 19.8 points and 7.6 rebounds. Bam Adebayo is averaging 17.6 points in his last five games.

When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best in the league this season, ranking 3rd in points allowed per game at 108.1. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 109.6 points per game, which is 8th in the league. In their last five games, they have been even stingier, allowing just 103 points per game.

One area where the Heat have been especially good this season is at the free-throw line, as they have given up just 19.2 made free-throws per game, which is 3rd in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 14.6 made free-throws per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Heat have done a good job of limiting opponents’ attempts, as they are 24th in the league in three-point attempts allowed per game at 36.9. Overall, they are 18th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.4%. In terms of steals and blocked shots, they are 15th and 30th in the league, respectively.