Strategy for Betting Live In Game and First 5 Innings

 

Last Updated: 2017-05-13

As we know, in-game wagering is evolving on a regular basis. Professional bettors are utilizing it perhaps more than the full-game, set-it-and-forget-it bets. Now, if you’re just throwing some milk-money on games for action, that’s one thing. If you’re truly trying to grow your bankroll, it’s quite another.

If you have the time and are following your bets as they’re being played out, there’s no reason you shouldn’t be progressive.

A lot of very successful bettors I know bet nothing but bet first-five innings in baseball. They can be much easier to handicap simply because we’re taking the bullpens completely out of the equation. But, there’s much more to it than that. They create more opportunities for in-game wagering at some great prices with very little risk, if any.

Last night’s game in Washington between the Orioles and Nationals is a textbook example to use. We had taken the “over” for first five innings and had it won when the Orioles scored in the top of the fifth inning to take a 5-1 lead. But, at the time Wade Miley had already thrown 100 pitches, and the Orioles bullpen had been abused the last two nights. We knew Washington would at least have chances somewhere along the line if they could shut down Baltimore. They did and of course won the game in the ninth.

We bet the Nationals to win the game, live wagering. A double win for us at a great price.

That was clearly the best case scenario, and of course they don’t all work out that well. But wait, there’s more. Let’s look at totals for a minute. Let’s assume we bet a game to go “over” 8 runs. In the first two innings they’ve got five runs so we’re looking great. We’ve got that ticket cashed! Well, maybe we do and maybe we don’t, because we all know that games like that often end 4-3.

But, rather than think we’ve got it won, let’s think how we might maximize that position we’re in. The new in-game total that the book throws up between innings might be twelve. Well, if that game had “12” written on it before it started we’d have bet heavily on the under, more than likely. So, why wouldn’t we take an in-game under and have a shot to middle, or hit both sides? Especially if we’re not involving half-runs, because we could easily “push” one and win one.

The point here is that we cannot limit our thinking. Yes, if you’re a recreational bettor with two small children and a job, that does create a higher degree of difficulty, which is why finding a “good tout” might help. But, if you have the time there is no reason why you wouldn’t want to be looking for opportunities. They don’t happen every game, or even every night. But they present themselves in a big way if you’re paying attention.

We know that a very small percentage of people make money gambling. That is in spite of claims to the contrary, and I am actually a tout. A tout that’s trying to help educate people. If Apple comes out with an iPhone 8, people will line up for the newest thing, or at the very least explore it. If a bookmaker offers something new and different, at the very least you owe it to yourself to explore it.

If you don’t know, ask. The saying that there are not stupid questions, only stupid answers, definitely applies. I ask people that are much sharper than me in some niche’s a question almost every day.

Remember, think long term and act short term. It’s the only way and there are no shortcuts.

Dave Essler is a professional handicapper from Pregame, featured on ESPN, CNN, Fox Sports, and more.

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