Picking a Sports Handicapper AKA Tout

 

Last Updated: 2017-05-16

Truth be told I am a tout under the dictionary definition, so I suppose you have to consider the source. However, I am not trying to sell you anything and I do this t educate people so they might not make all the mistakes I did “growing up.” So, this is merely a continuance of some other articles and concepts.

As you are no doubt aware there are thousands of solicitations and websites out there selling plays. What I will tell you is that any offer to buy you receive that has something to the effect of “I’m on a 9-2 run!.” you should question. That’s 11 plays. Clearly the ones before that LOST or they’d be claiming 10-2. Please remember that winning 55% over the course of a year, of through a season of all major sports, is pretty epic and rarely done be professional bettors, let alone touts.

Consider this scenario. You are losing with your own bets and finally decide to respond to an offer. Of course it loses, and you bet more than you wish you did (or should have). On top of that there was no real explanation as to why the pick would win, so you have learned absolutely nothing. Well, you found out not to but that guys’ picks any longer. So, you move on to the next “white hot” capper who is simply going to regress, and now you’re out more money, didn’t learn, and can’t question the capper because they’re hiding behind a site that either doesn’t allow feedback or a Twitter handle that chooses not to respond.

And yet another math lesson for you. If you are a $100 bettor that’s adding $25 to the cost of a play you’ve increased you expected win rate (to break even) from 52.38% to 57.44%, which is simply unattainable. Stop doing that.

If you do decide you want help then in my opinion you have to have three things with a service. First, one that gives you reasons why a certain team will win. And not the “because their pitcher is better” thing, either.

Secondly, find someone with a reasonable record over the course of time, and that’s not a week or a month. Almost anyone can get hot, an EVERYONE will suffer bad runs. Don’t fall for the tout that doesn’t do it for a living. There are so many that come home for an actual job, only to look and see where the reverse line moves are, and fire a play on them. I can teach you to do that in about a day. Stop doing that. Actually, RLM (reverse line movement) is a great topic for tomorrow, too.

Thirdly, find a service you can discuss things with on a reasonable level. I think you’ll find that there are touts that don’t mind telling you they were wrong, and why, so long as you are at least somewhat respectful. If you’re accusatory, it’s hard to get an honest response, and in truth that’s no different than arguing with your wife, girlfriend, or both.

And lastly, get something lined up longer term. A week won’t help, a month MIGHT but if nothing else you will learn some handicapping tips. Set your expectations to “reasonable,” and hit the refresh key. You are not going to recover losses over night. You’ve learned what NOT to do, so either stop betting, do your own work, or find someone you can trust. You wouldn’t hire a contractor to put a new roof on your house that doesn’t have insurance, has never actually put a roof on, or doesn’t answer his phone.

This type of work is no different.

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