Just as we did yesterday, we’re going to look at some early movement in Saturday’s CFB games and see if we can ascertain not only “why,” but where the line might go as well as where it might close. We know from experience that often times these early moves are “setup” moves, with the true position coming later in the cycle and at a better number.
2 years ago Each week we’ve taken a late look at where some lines started and where they sit as we approach kickoff. Remember this if you’re reading markets for the first time, and that’s that it take much more money to move a line on a Friday or Saturday than it does early in the betting cycle.
2 years ago Every week we’re looking at opening lines and comparing them to what we have to bet into later in the week. As is often the case, early moves matter simply because most recreational bettors do indeed wait until gameday to place their wagers. What that means is that often times the early moves are by the “sharp” bettors, either taking the absolute best of the number, or in some cases setting up a number to buy it back later at a better price.
2 years ago Often times the best predictor of the future is the past, so what I’ve found helpful over the years is immediately looking back at games and trying to find anything significant we can use going forward. I’ve look at several of the Week One CFB games and here are some initial observations.
2 years ago Every week we’re going to look at line moves and see what they mean, if anything. What many call a “sharp” bettor is in reality someone that gets the best number and/or beats the closing line. Here is a rundown of the Week One College Football moves, and remember some books have had lines up for months.
2 years ago Every season handicappers and bettors wait, and wait, and wait to start looking in detail about what they’re actually wagering on. Many rely strictly on returning starters and what happened last season, which can be a catastrophic mistake. Don’t forget the transfers, some of which are high-profile and have the potential to have high-impact.
2 years ago It’s almost the All-Star break and this is when teams will shake out as buyers or seller, as well as know that there season is essentially over. That can make it difficult on a short-term daily basis and for that reason we should look at the longer term options sooner rather than later.
2 years ago It’s been my experience that bettors pay too much attention to the polls, both preseason and during the season. To be fair, often times the sportsbooks do as well and the last thing we want is to use the same information they do.
2 years ago It won’t be long now until we start discussing the strength of schedules and the merits of who should and shouldn’t be in the Playoffs for the CFB Championship.
2 years ago Looking at their schedule, there are six wins on it. They open at a neutral site against NC State, which is a winnable game. They’re at Missouri, and Missouri will be favored, but South Carolina winning there wouldn’t surprise me. But, I’ll give them the “L” there simply because Missouri tends to own them. Then … Continue reading 2017 South Carolina Gamecocks Season Win Total Pick
2 years ago 
