There’s talk just about everywhere regarding Closing Line Value (CLV). Simply put, the closing line is the spread at the time off, or kick off. For professional bettors it’s often times THE most important thing and for casual bettors it should be.
The easiest example to give is using a money line. For example, let’s say your typical bet on a given game is $100. If you were to bet on Baylor at -130 and the line CLOSED at -135 that’s a mere .05.
If you were to bet on Baylor at +135 (no that that will happen soon) and Baylor closed +130 you once again gain a nickel. Of course that doesn’t sound like a lot, but if you calculate that edge you’re either making or saving an extra bucks every time you hit “enter.” Take it one step further and betting just one game per day (who does that?) and you’re ahead either way by $150.
That’s the easy part. Actually beating the closing line takes skill, patience, and working hard in advance.For instance, you can’t come home from your day job and expect to get the best of it. Countless sharp bettors and syndicates have at least a 24 hour head start.You must know the game(s) you like and you also must be able to predict what the line will do. I completely understand that the time needed to do that just isn’t there for many people.
The tout industry, or which I am one, has a shaky reputation and it’s been rightfully earned, be honest. However,there are plenty of good handicappers that don’t have day jobs and do the work thoroughly and well. Winning is hard, period, and remember at -110 the break even point is winning 52.4% of your wagers which sounds easy enough. And yet, a small percentage of people actually do that.
I’m not here to sell you plays.I’m here to educate and if I can save one person from making less mistakes than I did, that’s gratifying to me. The point is that you can keep your bankroll under two circumstances, assuming you’re paying for information. Surprisingly, the first one is NOT finding a winning handicapper. It’s starting with reasonable expectations, because everyone has both good and bad streaks. The SECOND one if finding a winning handicapper that also provides reasonable detail as why he bet a certain game, because of nothing else you will learn.
So, give thought to where you are and where you want to be. It’ll pay not only financial dividends but will also dramatically reduce some stress, which we all could use in this day and age,