Last Updated: 2017-04-18
I guess because I handicap sports and sell picks that I am considered a “tout” whether I like it or not. I don’t, but that’s the label that’s going to stick regardless. I do know what it feels like to buy picks and have expectations, because I’ve done it, which is exactly why I DO it now.
Most everyone is inundated with not only a million options on Twitter, new websites that come up seemingly every day, and offers that seem too good to be true. Usually, those offers are too good to be true. The FACT of the matter is that betting against the -110 we need to win 52.38% of our bets in order to be profitable. That’s very difficult to do, and only a small percentage of professional bettors actually do, and most (perhaps all) don’t sell picks.
That would clearly begs the question as to what I think I can offer and why I am any different. Well, I don’t need the money from selling picks and I simply try to give people more than the pay for.
If you ARE going to buy picks, please set your expectations beyond a day or a week, and make sure you are going to LEARN something along the way, even if it’s that you SHOULD NOT buy picks. Clearly spending almost any amount of money on picks on a daily basis makes that -110 a much higher number which of course significantly increases the win percentage needed just to break even.
We know from experience that people will advertise the last ten games if they’re 8-2. We know people will promote a streak of, say, 37 games. That’s odd – I have to wonder what picks 38 through whatever were going backwards. Probably not as good. People will claim they never had losing years. I suppose that could be the case if they’ve had a couple of years.
What I don’t want people to do is jump on the hype of one game. Yes, most handicappers really like a game if they give it a label. But it’s still got win probabilities that aren’t THAT much better than any other game. It’s simple math. And people fall into the trap of betting too much money on that one game, for whatever reason. They’re trying to bail out from a losing stretch on their own, or they simply are unaware of the pitfalls. I have to think that it only gets worse when gambling becomes legal everywhere, and it will.
So, find someone you can trust. Someone that’s accessible. Someone that shares as much information as possible. Yes, I am all of those things but I am not alone, simply in a minority.
One of the things I am most proud of is an MLB client a few years ago. We had a mediocre season, and of course I told him that I wished it had been better. His reply was something to the effect of “it’s fine, I’d have gladly paid that money for the six month education”. And THAT is why I do this. I get people mad at me all the time, and although I can’t say I blame them because we’re involving money, emotion, and sports – and our need to be RIGHT. But, if you can’t bet with money management and discipline, then please don’t bet. Nothing good will happen.
We won’t get wealthy or retire early betting on sports. And betting on sports is changing rapidly. One good example is in-game betting which can both provide some great plus-EV bets, or get you OFF a bad bet. But, if we keep our expectations reasonable we can have fun and keep our money at the same time, again, over a long period of time, because EVERYONE goes through regression to the mean. I’ve often thought if I had it to do all over again (buy picks) I’d find someone that’s generally very good that’s losing, because he won’t forever. But that’s just not the way people market. They market the 80% stretch, which at some point IS going to regress to the mean.
We all know the definition of insanity.
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