After qualifying 13th, Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell (+1600) worked until he took the low line and the race lead at Homestead-Miami, emerging with the win and a place in the Championship Four next to Kyle Larson (+700).

Bell was followed to Victory Lane by Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney (+1200), 23 XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (+1400), Hendrick Motorsports’ William Byron (+750), and Kaulig Racing’s A.J. Allmendinger (+20000), who completed the top five at Homestead.

Two spots remain in the Championship Four, with one of those spots all but secured by NASCAR Cup Series points leader and Championship favorite William Byron. With one truly free spot available, the pressure increases on the remaining five playoff drivers, each fighting for the final spot for the 2023 Championship finale in Phoenix.

Bangthebook has reviewed the recent performances and exhaustive historical data to find our pick to win the Xfinity 500, with odds provided by BetOnline.

The Top Five Finishers at Martinsville’s Spring Race

Two annual races and a long NASCAR history provide betting insights into potential driver performances around Martinsville’s short track.

Martinsville’s Spring race was won by Championship Four Driver Kyle Larson, with Team Penske’s Joey Logano (+1400), Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. (+900), and Denny Hamlin (+300), and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Chase Briscoe (+3300) completing the top five.

Hendrick Motorsports Will Still Be Competitive at Martinsville

While all four of Hendrick Motorsports drivers have winning pedigree at Martinsville, with Chase Elliott (+1600) and Alex Bowman (+4000 at BetOnline) winning in 2020 and 2021, we’re focusing on the team’s two playoff drivers destined for the Championship Four because they’re going to be competitive in the top-ten and fighting for the win.

Kyle Larson is locked into the Championship Four and has an outstanding recent history at Martinsville, having one win and three top-five finishes in five races since February 2020. Larson led the most laps and won stage one at Homestead-Miami before a crash into the pitlane water barrel barrier ended his hopes at a top-20 finish.

William Byron has five top-five finishes in the playoffs, only finishing outside the top ten once in eight playoff races. Byron is strong around Martinsville’s short track, having one win, three top-five, and five top-ten finishes in his last seven races in Virginia.

Denny Hamlin and the Joe Gibbs Racing Contingent

Joe Gibbs Racing has one driver in the Championship Four and two drivers fighting for the final two spots, with only one driver truly in the mix for the win at Martinsville.

Martin Truex Jr.’s Regular Season points win is in the past, and his pole position at Las Vegas was a false dawn of performance. Despite his successful history at Martinsville, having eight finishes outside the top 15 in the last nine races means fading Truex from your betting picks altogether.

Our Toyota betting focus falls on Denny Hamlin, whose history at Martinsville has him the betting favorite and statistically the most likely driver to win his way into the Championship Four and his best chance to win his first career Cup Series Championship.

Hamlin has five wins, 18 top-five, and 24 top-ten finishes in 35 career races, with an average finishing position of 10.3 at Martinsville.

Despite finishing 30th at Las Vegas, Hamlin has one race win, two stage wins, and five top-ten finishes in the 2023 playoffs.

Can a Ford Driver Upset the Field?

Oddsmakers have Ford as a distant third for winning manufacturer. However, Team Penske’s duo of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney have successful recent histories at Martinsville, which could provide a Ford upset on Sunday.

2022 Cup Series Champion and eliminated playoff driver Joey Logano has scored two top-ten finishes in his last three races. However, Logano has four top-five and seven top-ten finishes in his last seven races at Martinsville.

Blaney is currently third in the points standings, having two top-three and three top-ten finishes in the last four races. A first career win at Martinsville could be on tap for Blaney, who has four top-five and five top-ten finishes in his last seven races on the short track.

BangtheBook’s NASCAR Cup Series Xfinity 500 Betting Pick

Bangthebook is picking Denny Hamlin to win at Martinsville, with Blaney, Bell, Byron, and Logano completing the top five.

Bet on Denny Hamlin to win at Xfinity 500 at BetOnline!