Last week, we chose betting favorite Kyle Larson (+275) to win his way into the Round of Eight. Larson lived up to his favorite status, taking the lead from pole-sitter Christopher Bell (+1200) early and holding Bell back, narrowly landing on Victory Lane.
Bell was followed to the checkered flag by eliminated playoff drivers Kyle Busch (+1600, Richard Childress Racing), Brad Keselowski (+1400, RFK Racing), and Ross Chastain (+1800, Trackhouse Racing), completing the top five. Notably, the top-eleven finishers at Las Vegas were all playoff drivers in the Round of 12.
The Round of Eight continues as the Cup Series moves to the season’s final leg, heading to Homestead-Miami, where Larson and Hendrick Motorsports are favored to win back-to-back races in the Round of Eight and a third consecutive win at Homestead-Miami.
Hendrick Motorsports Playoff Duo Atop the Standings (and Your Betting Picks) Again
Chevrolet is favored to win at Homestead-Miami, so look no further than the Hendrick Motorsports duo atop the Cup Series Playoff standings and among the betting favorites for your pick to win on Sunday.
Despite winning his way into the Championship Four, Kyle Larson has to be among your betting picks for a top-five finish and race win on Sunday: Larson has one win (2022) and five top-five finishes in nine career races at Homestead-Miami.
Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron (+750) dropped to second in the Cup Series Playoff points standings but has a very successful record at Homestead-Miami. Byron has one race win (2021) and two top-ten finishes in five career races at Homestead.
However, Byron is having the best season of his career, having two wins and eight top-ten finishes in the last nine races, meaning he’ll be in the mix for the race win and likely to finish in the top five.
The Toyotas Challengers
Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin (+700) has a successful history at Homestead-Miami and headlines Toyota’s challengers. While Hamlin has five top-ten finishes in the seven Cup Series playoff races, he has three career wins, five top-five, and 12 top-ten finishes in 18 career races at Homestead-Miami.
Don’t believe the oddsmakers favored status for Hamlin’s teammate Martin Truex Jr. (+575), who has one win, seven top-five, and 12 top-ten finishes in 18 career races at Homestead-Miami. Truex’s recent performances don’t warrant a pick in the top ten, as his ninth-place finish at Las Vegas was his first top-ten finish since Watkins Glen.
23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (+575) has two consecutive and four top-ten finishes in the Cup Series playoffs. Reddick is sixth in the points standings and needs stage-winning points and a race win to secure a spot in the Championship Four. He should be in the mix for the win, having two top-five finishes in three career races at Homestead-Miami.
Can Ford’s Playoff Drivers Upset the Field?
Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney (+1800) and RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher (+1600) are Ford’s two remaining Cup Series Championship hopefuls, each without impressive histories at Homestead-Miami.
Blaney has one top-five finish in eight career races, while Buescher’s best finish in seven career races at Homestead-Miami was 13th in 2022.
Another Non-Playoff Winner?
Kaulig Racing’s A.J. Allmendinger (+15000 at BetOnline) is the only winner of a 2023 Cup Series playoff race not currently fighting in the Round of Eight.
RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski (+1400) has been eliminated from the 2023 playoffs but has four top-five and seven top-ten finishes in 15 career trips to Homestead-Miami, with his best finish being third in 2014-15.
For those looking for a long shot with a real chance to win and a winning pedigree at Homestead-Miami, look no further than Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick (+2000), who has one win, 12 top-five, and 19 top-ten finishes in 22 career starts.
BangtheBook’s NASCAR Cup Series 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobile 1 Betting Pick
Bangthebook is taking Tyler Reddick to upset the Hendrick Motorsports duo and win at Homestead-Miami, with Larson, Byron, Harvick, and Hamlin completing the top five.