The Denver Nuggets (-159) are favored by 3.5 points over the Dallas Mavericks (+132) in a Western Conference matchup. The over/under line is 226.5 points.

Denver is currently on a five-game win streak and sits second in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are eighth in the West and have a record of 38-29. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 ET at the American Airlines Center.


The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +3.5

This game will be played at American Airlines Center at 3:30 ET on Sunday, March 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 118-111 in favor of the Mavericks.
  • Our projections have Luka Doncic finishing with Luka Doncic points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Mavericks finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.1% and knocking down 16 threes.

Will Denver Pull Through as the Favored Road Team?

On the road this season, the Nuggets have an average scoring differential of -0.1 points per game. They are 20-14 on the road and have won five straight games away from home. Against the spread on the road, they are 15-18.

Denver is favored by 3.5 points today and has a record of 43-14 as the favorite. In their last 10 games, they have been the favorite in all of them. Their ATS record as the favorite is 26-29.

In their win over the Spurs, the teams combined for 223 points, which was below the O/U line of 224.5. The Nuggets won the game by a score of 117-106, covering the spread as 10.5-point favorites.

For the season, the Nuggets are 25-40-2 on the O/U. In their last two games, the final score has been below the posted O/U line. In their games this season, the average combined scoring is 225.1 points.

Currently, the Nuggets are 2nd in the Western Conference with a record of 47-20. In the West, they have gone 26-14 against other conference teams and 6-5 in their division.

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are 15th in the NBA at 114.8 points per game. However, they have been better at home, where they are 9th at 118.9 points per game. On the road, they are 22nd at 110.8 points per game.

Denver has been one of the most efficient shooting teams in the league, ranking 4th in field goal percentage at 49%. They are also 8th in two-point shooting at 56%. However, they are just 28th in three-point shooting at 36%.

So far this season, the Nuggets are 3rd in the NBA in assists at 29.3 per game. They have outscored the league average in 49.3% of their games and are 13th in offensive rebounds at 10.7 per game.

At present, the Nuggets’ defense is ranked 7th, allowing 110.3 points per game. Inside the arc, the Nuggets defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 52.5% and 35.9% from three-point territory.

Can the Mavericks Offense Score Enough at Home?

Dallas is 37-30 ATS this season and has covered the spread in five straight games. At home, the Mavericks are 16-19 ATS and have an average scoring differential of +3.5 points per game.

As the underdog, the Mavericks are 9-18 straight-up and 12-15 ATS. Today, they are getting 3.5 points and have gone 3-4 on the O/U when the lines are lower than today’s (226.5).

In their last game, the Mavericks lost to the Thunder by a score of 126-119. They were 9.5-point underdogs going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 233.5.

In the Western Conference standings, the Mavericks are currently in 8th place with a record of 38-29. Against other Western Conference teams, they are 22-19 and 8-5 against teams in the Southwest Division.

On average, the Mavericks’ games have finished with 236.7 points this season. Their O/U record for the season is 34-33.

At home, the Mavericks are averaging 119.8 points per game this season (8th). Overall, they are 6th in the NBA at 119 points per game.

Dallas has been a high-volume three-point shooting team this season, ranking 2nd in three-point attempts per game. They have made 37% of their three-point attempts (12th).

When it comes to pace, the Mavericks are 11th in the NBA at 99.7 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, Dallas is 11th in the league at 48%.

Coming into the game, the Mavericks’ defense is giving up an average of 117.7 points per game. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA league average in 64.2% of their games. On two point field goal attempts, the Mavericks’ defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.6% and allowing 36.8% from beyond the arc.