The Pistons (-275) host the Heat (+222) in an Eastern Conference matchup. Miami is favored by 6.5 and the over/under is 215. The Heat are 8th in the East, while the Pistons are 14th.

This game will be played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:00 ET. You can watch this game on BSDE.


The Pick: Detroit Pistons +6.5

This game will be played at Little Caesars Arena at 3:00 ET on Sunday, March 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 112-109 in favor of the Heat.
  • Our projections have Terry Rozier finishing with Terry Rozier points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Heat finishing with a field goal percentage of 47.2% and knocking down 11 threes.

Can the Heat Grab a Win in Detroit?

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 24-42, and the under has hit in their last five games. Today’s line is set at 215 points, and their games have averaged 219.7 points per game.

This season, Miami is 31-32 against the spread, including a 19-12 ATS record on the road. As the favorite, they are 16-18 ATS on the road and 26-11 overall.

In their most recent game against the Pistons, the Heat won by a score of 108-95. They were favored by 7.5 points in that game, giving them an ATS win.

Overall, the Heat are 36-30 this season, which is good for 8th place in the Eastern Conference. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 24-17 and 11-3 against division opponents.

On the road, the Heat have an average scoring differential of +1.0 points per game. This season, they are 19-15 straight up on the road.

When it comes to scoring, the Heat have struggled this season, ranking just 27th in the league at 110.1 points per game. On the road, they have been even worse, averaging 107.7 points per game.

In terms of pace, the Heat are one of the slower teams in the league, ranking 29th at just 96 possessions per game. This could be a factor in their below-average scoring numbers.

From a shooting perspective, Miami is 22nd in field goal percentage at 46%. They have been particularly poor inside the arc, ranking just 27th in two-point field goal percentage at 52%.

So far, the Heat’s defense is ranked 5th in the league at 109.6 points per contest. On two point field goal attempts, the Heat’s defensive unit is allowing a field goal percentage of 55.2% and allowing 36.1% from beyond the arc.

Can the Pistons Offense Score Enough at Home?

This season, the Pistons have an O/U record of 34-31-1, and the under has hit in three straight games. Today’s O/U line is set at 215 points, which is lower than all but one of their games this season.

Detroit’s O/U record for games with higher lines than 215 is 1-0, and their games have averaged 232.4 points per game. This is slightly higher than the average O/U line of 230 points.

The Pistons are 9-50 as underdogs this season and have failed to cover the spread in their last two games as the underdog. As the underdog, they are 30-28 ATS and have an ATS record of 16-17 at home and 17-15 on the road.

In their most recent game, the Pistons lost to the Heat by a score of 108-95. Detroit was a 7.5-point underdog in the game and finished with an ATS loss. The O/U line for that game was 217.5 points.

With a record of 12-54, the Pistons are 14th in the Eastern Conference and 5th in the Central Division. In conference play, they are 9-32 and 3-22 against non-conference opponents.

At home, the Pistons are averaging 111.6 points per game, which is 25th in the NBA. Overall, they are 22nd in scoring at 112.1 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage, the Pistons are 19th in the league at 47%. They are also 7th in pace at 100.2 possessions per game.

When it comes to three-point shooting, Detroit is 29th in made threes at 11.3 per game. They are also 21st in three-point shooting percentage at 35%. In terms of free throw attempts, the Pistons are 14th in the league at 22.2 per game.

So far this season, the Pistons have outscored the NBA scoring average in 31.8% of their games. In terms of assists, they are 17th in the league at 26.3 per game. When looking at two-point field goal attempts, the Pistons are 2nd in the NBA.

As they prepare for the upcoming game, the Pistons is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 120.3 points per game (26th). Inside the arc, the Pistons defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 55.7% and 37.3% from three-point territory.