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Thursday night at 6:30 PM ET, the Pacers and Bucks will square off at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for game six of this first-round Eastern Conference series. The Pacers currently hold a 3-2 series lead and are favored by eight points. The over/under line is 212.5 points, and Indiana is at -345 on the money line compared to the Bucks at +271. TNT is carrying this game on TV.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS INDIANA PACERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Milwaukee Bucks +8

This game will be played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse at 6:30 ET on Thursday, May 2nd.

WHY BET THE MILWAUKEE BUCKS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 113-110 in favor of the Bucks.
  • Our projections have Giannis Antetokounmpo finishing with Giannis Antetokounmpo points, 12 rebounds and 7 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Bucks finishing with a field goal percentage of 49.0% and knocking down 16 threes.

The Bucks picked up a 115-92 win over the Pacers in the most recent game of this series. Milwaukee was able to cover the spread as 4.5-point underdogs and also held Indiana to just 207 combined points. The Bucks got off to a slow start in the first quarter, but outscored the Pacers 30-17 in the 2nd and 34-19 in the 3rd.

Both Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton had 29 points for the Bucks, with Middleton also pulling down 12 boards. Milwaukee shot 52.4% from the field and made 11 threes. As for the Pacers, they made just 12 threes and shot 31.6% from downtown. Tyrese Haliburton hit four threes and finished with 16 points.

Will Milwaukee Come Through as Road Underdogs?

The Bucks have a record of 49-33 this season and are currently in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. In games against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 34-18 and 15-15 against the West.

On the road, the Bucks are 18-24 for the season. Their average scoring differential on the road is -1.6 points per game. Against the spread on the road, they are 17-25.

This season, the Bucks have been the underdog in 19 of their 82 games and have a record of 6-13 in those games. As the underdog, they are 9-10 against the spread, with an average scoring differential of -7.8 PPG.

In their last game against the Pacers, the Bucks won by a score of 115-92. They were 4.5-point underdogs going into the game and easily covered the spread. The O/U line for that game was 217.5.

Milwaukee's O/U record for the season is 44-43, and their games have averaged a combined 234.7 points per game. Today's O/U line of 212.5 is lower than all of their previous games.

Looking at the Bucks' offense, they are averaging 119 points per game this season, which is the 4th best mark in the NBA. Their scoring average on the road is 116.6 points per game, also 4th in the league. Milwaukee is 6th in pace, averaging 99.9 possessions per game.

Khris Middleton has been playing well for the Bucks of late, averaging 26.8 points per game in his last five games. This has come while hitting 49.5% of his shots from the field. Over his last three games, Damian Lillard has hit 5.3 threes per game and 32.3 points per game.

When it comes to points allowed, the Milwaukee Bucks have been a middle-of-the-pack team this season, ranking 21st in the NBA at 116.1 points per game. On the road, they have given up 118.2 points per contest (22nd in the league).

Over their last five games, the Bucks have allowed 111.6 points per game (16th in the NBA). During that stretch, they have done a good job of keeping opponents off the free-throw line, allowing just 12.2 made free-throws per game (3rd in the NBA).

On the season, opposing teams have shot 47% from the field against Milwaukee (14th in the NBA). In terms of three-point shooting, the Bucks have given up a 35.4% clip from beyond the arc (12th in the league).

Will Indiana Win at Home?

The Pacers are favored by 8 points today against the Bucks. As the favorite, Indiana has gone 28-19 this season, and they are 22-25 ATS as the favorite with an average scoring margin of +6 points per game.

Indiana's O/U record for the season is 46-41, and their games have averaged 242.4 points per game compared to today's line of 212.5. On average, their games have had an O/U line of 240.1.

Indiana's last game was also against the Bucks, and they lost by a score of 115-92. The Pacers were favored by 4.5 points in that game, and they are 46-39 straight-up and 46-39 ATS this season.

In the Eastern Conference standings, the Pacers are currently in 6th place with a record of 47-35. Within the Central Division, they are 3rd at 11-6 and 32-20 against other teams in the East.

At home this season, the Pacers have a record of 28-15 straight-up and 23-19 ATS. Their average scoring differential at home is +6.9 points per game.

Looking at the Pacers' team stats, they are the top-scoring team in the league, at 123.3 points per game. This number has gone up to 125.4 points per game when playing at home. Not only are the Pacers the top-scoring team, but they have also been the most efficient team, with a field goal percentage of 50%. In terms of two-point field goal percentage, they are also at the top of the league, at 58%.

Pascal Siakam has averaged 23 points per game over his last five games, to go along with 9.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Myles Turner has hit 47.4% of his threes in his last five games, averaging 3.6 made threes per game and 22 points. Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 10.9 assists per game and 20.1 points for the season, but he is questionable with a back injury.

When it comes to defense, the Pacers have struggled this season, ranking 27th in points allowed per game at 119.8. This is a trend that has continued at home, where they are giving up 118.6 points per contest (28th).

One area where Indiana has excelled is defending the three-point line. They are tops in the NBA in three-pointers made allowed per game (10.8) and have held opponents to just 36.5% shooting from beyond the arc.

Overall, opponents have been able to score above their season average in 70.7% of games vs. the Pacers. However, in terms of made free-throws, Indiana has done a good job of avoiding fouls, ranking 30th in made free-throws allowed per game.