Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Betting Pick & Prediction 5/1/24

Boston is looking to close out their first-round series against the Heat, as they currently lead 3-1. Tip-off for game five is set for 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston. TNT is carrying the game on TV, and the Celtics are the 13.5 point favorites. The over/under line is at 198.5 points, and the money line odds are Miami +679 and Boston -1101.

MIAMI HEAT VS BOSTON CELTICS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Heat +13.5

This game will be played at TD Garden at 7:30 ET on Wednesday, May 1st.

WHY BET THE MIAMI HEAT:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 115-111 in favor of the Celtics.
• Our projections have Jayson Tatum finishing with Jayson Tatum points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
• From the field, we have the Celtics finishing with a field goal percentage of 47.9% and knocking down 17 threes.

The Celtics picked up a 102-88 win over the Heat in the most recent game of this series. Boston was favored by 10.5 points heading into the game, and they covered the spread with their 14-point win. The 190 combined points were 14.5 points fewer than the over/under line of 204.5 points.

It was a slow game offensively for both teams, as the Heat shot just 40.7% from the field and made only nine threes. The Celtics weren't much better from the field, shooting just 41.9%. Derrick White was the game's leading scorer, finishing with 38 points and knocking down eight threes. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 25 points and 17 rebounds.

Can The Heat Secure a Road Victory?

Miami's O/U record for the season is 37-51-0, and their games have averaged 217.4 points per game. Today's O/U line is 198.5, which is lower than their season average of 219.7.

On the road, Miami has an average scoring differential of +1.2 points per game. Their ATS record on the road is 26-15, and they are 19-20 as underdogs.

The Heat are currently 8th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 46-36. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 32-20 compared to 14-16 against the West.

In their last game, the Heat lost to the Celtics by a score of 102-88. They were 10.5-point underdogs in that game and have lost their last two games straight up and against the spread.

As underdogs this season, the Heat have a record of 12-27. Today, they are 13.5-point underdogs and are 19-20 vs. the spread as underdogs.

Looking at Miami's offense, they are 27th in the league this season, at 110.1 points per game. Their scoring average is even worse on the road, at 107.8 points per contest. The Heat's pace of 95.8 possessions per game is the second-lowest mark in the league.

Jimmy Butler is out for the Heat, and they will also be without Terry Rozier. Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game this season, followed by Rozier at 19.8. Rozier is at 5.6 assists per game, and Butler is at 5. Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.6 points over his last five games, along with 9.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists. Tyler Herro is averaging 18.6 points in his last five games.

On the season, the Miami Heat rank 3rd in the NBA in points allowed per game at 108.0. On the road, they have been even stingier, ranking 1st in the league at 106.6 points per contest.

One of the reasons the Heat have been so successful defensively is their ability to limit opponents from beyond the arc. On the season, opponents are making just 13.0 three-pointers per game vs. Miami, which is 18th in the NBA.

Over their last five games, the Heat have been even better on the defensive end, ranking 5th in points allowed at 102.4 per game. During that stretch, opponents have made just 36% of their three-point attempts.

Is A Home Victory Likely for Favored Boston?

The Celtics are 13.5-point favorites at home today and have a 42-36 ATS record as the favorite this season. As the favorite, they have gone 65-17 straight up this season and have won their last two games vs. the spread.

Boston's O/U record for the season is 44-41-1, and their last two games have finished below the betting line. On average, their games have combined for 228.1 points per game.

In their most recent game against the Heat, the Celtics won 102-88 and covered the spread as 10.5-point favorites. The game's O/U line was 204.5 points.

The Celtics are currently in 1st place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 64-18. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 41-11 and 23-7 in non-conference games.

On the road, the Celtics have an ATS record of 21-20, compared to 23-18 at home. Their straight-up road record is 29-14, and they have won two straight games vs. the spread on the road.

Overall, the Celtics have won two straight games and are 44-38 ATS for the season. The team's average scoring margin at home is +14.7 PPG, while their average scoring differential on the road is +7.9 PPG.

Looking at the Celtics' offense, they are averaging 120.6 points per game this season, which is 2nd in the league. At home, they have been even better, at 122.4 points per contest. Boston is also the league leader in three-point attempts, getting up 42.5 attempts per game. For the season, they have hit 38% of their threes, which is 6th best in the league.

Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this season, and Jaylen Brown is at 23 points per contest. Tatum has hit 37.6% of his threes this season, while Brown is at 35.4%. Over his last four games, Tatum has averaged 23.2 points, and Brown is at 22.2 points in his last four.

Coming into tonight's game, the Boston Celtics are ranked 5th in the league in points allowed at 108.5 per game. Over their last five games, they have been even better, holding opponents to just 99.8 points per contest.

On the season, opponents have scored less than their season average in 70.7% of their games vs. the Celtics. In addition, Boston is the top team in the league in made free-throws allowed at just 17.1 per game.

Defensively, the Celtics are 1st in defensive rebounds and blocked shots per game. However, they are just 27th in the league in steals per contest.