2018 AAA Texas 500 Betting Odds & Predictions

Last Updated: 2018-10-31

AAA Texas 500 oddsThe Round of 8 continues on the 1.5-mile track at Texas Motor Speedway for this week’s AAA Texas 500. This is the second stop in Fort Worth and NASCAR has made two Cup Series stops here every year since 2005. Last week’s race at Martinsville featured a lot of disappointing surprises for the drivers, as several drivers failed inspections and had their qualifying times thrown out. Hopefully everything goes off without a hitch this week.

This is the 34th race of 36 scheduled for this season, as stops at ISM Raceway (Phoenix) and Homestead-Miami remain after the stop at Texas this week. Only eight drivers have a shot at taking down the Cup Championship, but all of the drivers remain in the field for these last three races.

This is one of the faster 1.5-mile tracks in NASCAR, so we should be in line for a good race. There is also a lot at stake this week. Kyle Busch leads the way with 4,104 points. Martin Truex Jr. is second with 4,083 points. Kevin Harvick is tied for second with 4,083 points. Joey Logano is fourth with 4,074 points and he has already clinched a spot in the final four with his win last week at Martinsville.

With Logano already in, it is win or bust for Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Clint Bowyer, and Aric Almirola. Catching Kevin Harvick or Martin Truex Jr. isn’t mathematically impossible, but it seems extremely unlikely without a win to automatically advance. With two tracks that Busch, Harvick, and Truex run well at, the odds are extremely low.

Kevin Harvick is a +275 favorite for this one per 5Dimes Sportsbook. Harvick is the reigning champion of this race, but it is his only career win at Texas Motor Speedway. Harvick hasn’t run particularly well of late. He led the most laps at Dover, but he’s been outside the top-five in five straight races. He did not have more than two straight races outside the top five up until this point. While he only has the one win at Texas, he was second in the spring race this year and has eight career top-five finishes here. There isn’t a ton of value on this price point, but he certainly seems to have a great shot at winning.

Kyle Busch is +400 this week. Busch won the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 earlier this year and is a three-time winner of that race. He’s yet to grab a win in the fall race. Last year he finished 19th to snap a string of three straight top-five finishes and four top-fives in his last five fall starts in the Lone Star State. He’s certainly been stronger in the spring for whatever reason, but we all know how good he is and +400 is not a bad price for a guy runs well here. That being said, it has been weird in the second half of the season, as Busch only has two wins since being the repeat champ at Pocono.

Despite his reputation on 1.5-mile tracks, Martin Truex Jr. doesn’t have the results at Texas that you would expect. He hasn’t finished in the top five in the spring race since 2013. But, he was second last year in the fall race and led the most laps. He was third two years ago. He’s winless here, but still has odds of +450 to take down this title. Truex generally has his best performances on the 1.5-mile tracks and he would certainly like Furniture Row Racing to go out as the two-time reigning champ before he becomes a full-fledged member of Joe Gibbs Racing for next year.

Kyle Larson checks in at +700. It has been a disappointing year for Larson, who burst on the scene last year, but hasn’t been the same guy this season. He also hasn’t run particularly well here. His best fall finish at Texas was seventh back in 2014. He was second last year in the spring race, but this has not been a great event for him. He could play spoiler in two weeks at Homestead-Miami, where he has led the most laps each of the last two years, but I wouldn’t take him here.

Brad Keselowski is also very good on 1.5-mile tracks and he is intriguing at +850. Keselowski was fifth in this race last year. Three years ago, he led the most laps and finished second. He doesn’t have a win at Texas as of yet, but he did win three races in a row earlier this year. Of course, those are his only wins and he’s scuffled since, with only one top-five finish, but he’s dangerous here. He’s got three top-five finishes in the last four fall races at Texas.

Looking down the board a bit, Chase Elliott is +1350 as he needs a win in this race or the next one. Kurt Busch is +2000 with Clint Bowyer at +2200. Aric Almirola is +2750. Those guys need to be aggressive and look to make some moves, but it is extremely tough to see those guys breaking through on a 1.5-mile track without gimmicks or hiccups for the top drivers. This will probably end up being a chalky race.

Coverage of the 2018 AAA Texas 500 will be on NBC Sports Network on Sunday afternoon with a 3 p.m. ET start time.

Odds as of October 31, 1 p.m. ET:

Kevin Harvick +275

Kyle Busch +400

Martin Truex Jr +450

Kyle Larson +700

Brad Keselowski +850

Ryan Blaney +1350

Chase Elliott +1350

Joey Logano +1500

Kurt Busch +2000

Clint Bowyer +2200

Aric Almirola +2750

Erik Jones +4400

Denny Hamlin +4400

Jimmie Johnson +6600

Alex Bowman +8800

Daniel Suarez +11500

Austin Dillon +11500

Ricky Stenhouse Jr +33000

Paul Menard +33000

Ryan Newman +33000

Jamie McMurray +33000

William Byron +45000

Trevor Bayne +100000

Chris Buescher +100000

AJ Allmendinger +100000

Darrell Wallace Jr +200000

Ty Dillon +200000

Regan Smith +200000

Michael McDowell +200000

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