2018 World Series Betting Futures Odds

Last Updated: 2018-03-06

2018 world series oddsIt has been about a month and a half since I’ve taken a look at the Major League Baseball futures market. In that time, we’ve seen a handful of noteworthy transactions, though there are still some intriguing free agents out there in the marketplace.

For the first time in 50 years, all 30 MLB teams will start on the same day, which is March 29. That means that we are about three weeks and a couple of days from the MLB season at time of writing. I’ve speculated on some teams to buy based on some of the transactions I was expecting, but now that the rosters are mostly what we can expect for the start of the season, we can really buckle down and take a look at what we’ve got going on.

I’ve talked about this before, but this is a good time to remind you that the best approach to baseball futures is to bet the teams that can win the division. You’ll have an easy hedge in the Wild Card Game, but you’ll also be forced to cut into your potential futures payout because of a high-variance single game sample size. That’s not to say that five and seven-game sample sizes aren’t high-variance, but anything can and will happen in one game.

It isn’t a bad approach to grab a 15/1 or higher future and then look to hedge in that Wild Card Game with an opportunity, but some teams that have uphill climbs to win the division are still at low futures prices. With the top-heavy nature of the league, futures betting is tricky this season.

Let’s take a look at the odds from BetOnline Sportsbook (to keep it consistent) as of March 6, 2018:

Arizona Diamondbacks +2800

Atlanta Braves +12500

Baltimore Orioles +10000

Boston Red Sox +1000

Chicago Cubs +800

Chicago White Sox +10000

Cincinnati Reds +20000

Cleveland Indians +800

Colorado Rockies +3300

Detroit Tigers +25000

Houston Astros +600

Kansas City Royals +10000

Los Angeles Angels +2000

Los Angeles Dodgers +600

Miami Marlins +25000

Milwaukee Brewers +2500

Minnesota Twins +4000

New York Mets +2500

New York Yankees +500

Oakland Athletics +12500

Philadelphia Phillies +6600

Pittsburgh Pirates +10000

San Diego Padres +10000

San Francisco Giants +2500

Seattle Mariners +3300

St. Louis Cardinals +2000

Tampa Bay Rays +8000

Texas Rangers +6600

Toronto Blue Jays +4000

Washington Nationals +800

A lot of the usual suspects remain worthy of picks. The Indians will win the AL Central, so they’ll be in the playoffs as an 8/1 ticket. The Nationals will win the NL East, so they’ll also be in as an 8/1 ticket. Houston and the LA Dodgers have a little more competition within the division, but they’re also likely to get in, but 6/1 on both of them isn’t a great price. The AL East is a stay away, since Boston will likely be relegated to the one-game playoff in the Wild Card and New York’s price is way too low.

Basically every futures price has changed since our last update, which you can read below this one.

Now that I’ve written my MLB season win total previews, there are a couple of teams I’ll be looking to add to my futures portfolio, to go along with Cleveland, Washington, the Angels, and Philadelphia.

Arizona Diamondbacks (+2800) – The humidor is going to do wonders for this pitching staff, which was already quite good anyway. Robbie Ray and Patrick Corbin with better home run rates are a real boost to the Diamondbacks. Arizona has also picked up guys like Steven Souza Jr. and Jarrod Dyson to help out defensively, as they are fully aware of the impacts that the humidor will have on offense. The offense wasn’t great last season, but Paul Goldschmidt is still an elite hitter and Souza is a pretty good stick as well. The Dodgers lost a little bit of depth, so don’t be shocked if Arizona makes this thing pretty close in the NL West as well. If we can get lucky and get the Snakes in as a division champion, the hedging possibilities will be there.

St. Louis Cardinals (+2000) – The Cubs should win the NL Central, but they feel more vulnerable to me than they have in past years. The Cardinals have a lot of high-floor talent and have some starting pitching help coming up through the minors in Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty. St. Louis is a very solid defensive team with a lot of average or better offensive pieces in the everyday lineup. This price hasn’t really fluctuated much over the offseason, but the additions of Marcell Ozuna and a lights-out reliever in Dominic Leone are big in my estimation.

 

-END OF MARCH 6 UPDATE-

 

We are 28 days away from the first reporting date for pitchers and catchers in Spring Training and it cannot get here soon enough. On a personal level, I’m really starting to shift into baseball mode as I get ready to unveil the novelesque MLB season win total series that I’ve made my staple here at BangTheBook. We’ll have additional futures articles, with the AL and NL pennants, the MVP, the Cy Young, the league’s home run leader, and more to go along with those team previews.

In the meantime, it’s about that time to take a look at the World Series board again. In fact, it was that time about a week and a half ago, but I’ve wanted to keep it consistent using the BetOnline odds and they were down for a little while.

We’re finally starting to see some movement in the free agent marketplace and we’ve seen some big trades over the last few days. The Houston Astros acquired Gerrit Cole to run their futures price down from +650 to +550. There is absolutely no value in betting on this team at this point. The San Francisco Giants have picked up both Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen to fill holes at third base and in the outfield. The name recognition of these upgrades may lead to some overvaluing of what those players provide. AT&T Park is a terrible hitter’s park and McCutchen’s defense is not what it once was. It’s still better than what the Giants had last season, but be wary of upgrading this team too much. The Giants odds have gone from +2500 to +2000 since we last touched on these numbers on December 4.

There have been some other transactions. The Indians plugged their hole at first base with Yonder Alonso on a relatively cheap deal after the Phillies gave $20 million per season to Carlos Santana. The Cardinals traded for Marcell Ozuna. There have been some other trades and signings here or there, but some big free agent dominoes still have to fall like Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lorenzo Cain, and JD Martinez.

Once again, for consistency’s sake, we’re sticking with the BetOnline numbers. Here are the futures odds as of January 16:

Arizona Diamondbacks +2500

Atlanta Braves +8000

Baltimore Orioles +5000

Boston Red Sox +1200

Chicago Cubs +900

Chicago White Sox +10000

Cincinnati Reds +12500

Cleveland Indians +750

Colorado Rockies +2500

Detroit Tigers +12500

Houston Astros +550

Kansas City Royals +6600

Los Angeles Angels +1600

Los Angeles Dodgers +600

Miami Marlins +10000

Milwaukee Brewers +2000

Minnesota Twins +2800

New York Mets +2000

New York Yankees +500

Oakland Athletics +10000

Philadelphia Phillies +8000

Pittsburgh Pirates +8000

San Diego Padres +12500

San Francisco Giants +2000

Seattle Mariners +3300

St. Louis Cardinals +2000

Tampa Bay Rays +5000

Texas Rangers +4000

Toronto Blue Jays +2800

Washington Nationals +1000

 

Here are the price changes since December 4:

Arizona +2000 to +2500

Baltimore +4000 to +5000

Cubs +800 to +900

White Sox +8000 to +10000

Cincinnati +10000 to +12500

Cleveland +700 to +750

Houston +650 to +550

Kansas City +5000 to +6600

Angels +3300 to +1600

Milwaukee +2500 to +2000

Minnesota +2500 to +2800

Mets +2800 to +2000

Yankees +700 to +500

Oakland +12500 to +10000

Pittsburgh +6600 to +8000

San Francisco +2500 to +2000

St. Louis +1600 to +2000

Tampa Bay +4000 to +5000

Texas +3300 to +4000

Toronto +2500 to +2800

So far, I’ve mentioned the Angels +3300, which could have been had at higher prices at other books, the Indians at +750, the Brewers at +2500, the Phillies at +8000, the Cubs at +750 (which are now at a much better price), and the Red Sox at +1200. Certainly I wouldn’t expect anybody to have futures on 20 percent of the league, but I’m just throwing out suggestions. If you do like Boston, you may want to grab them since a possible JD Martinez signing likely moves them down to +1000 or so.

In this update, there is only one team I would seriously contemplate adding and that is…

Minnesota Twins (+2800) – The price on the Twins improved a little bit, which makes sense since the competition for the Wild Card is a bit higher. The Twins have done some excellent things this offseason, including the recent signing of Addison Reed to bolster the bullpen. Minnesota is the type of team capable of taking advantage of this really soft free agent market. We’re seeing some very low free agent deals and trade assets have not been particularly notable, which is good for a Minnesota team without a strong farm system.

This was a playoff team last season, as unlikely as that was. The Miguel Sano storm seems to have passed and the Twins appear to be dealing with the matter internally. We haven’t heard anything additional about a possible suspension or any sort of punishment. The Indians have been very quiet this winter and don’t seem to have a whole lot of funds for adding players. The AL Central is extremely weak this season, even weaker than last season, so any slip up from Cleveland or a long-term injury to a key player and Minnesota is the lone benefactor.

The odds have gotten better on Arizona, and there may be some opportunity there, but I’m going to wait and see if the Los Angeles Dodgers reunite with Yu Darvish or if the Giants and/or Rockies make additional moves with this soft free agent market. I think we might have the chance to squeeze out a +2800 by waiting and every dollar counts when it comes to hedging.

 

-END OF JANUARY 16 UPDATE-

 

Tumbleweeds cooking in the desert sun are the only things burning on the MLB Hot Stove thus far. It has been a strangely quiet offseason, but we sort of expected that. As mentioned in our World Series odds update about a month ago, the biggest free agent class in history is on the horizon after the 2018 season, so teams are trying to position themselves for that and that means taking a conservative approach to this winter.

Two enormous dominoes need to fall before we start seeing a whole lot of activity. Those two dominoes are named Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani. Stanton is a name that we all know. The hulking slugger is going to be traded by Miami because Derek “Yeah, Jeets” Jeter and the group that bought the Marlins paid a lot for the team and now needs to cut costs. The hilarious thing about these trade acquisitions is that the Marlins have virtually put themselves in a position with no leverage, so they are left to decide from whatever trade packages teams put together. The Cardinals and Giants are reportedly the steadiest pursuers of Stanton’s services.

Shohei Ohtani is an altogether different animal. The Japanese import wants to be a two-way player as both a pitcher and hitter, which would make the National League far more likely than the American League. The 6-foot-4 southpaw played for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan and is some kind of special. In five seasons as a hitter in Japan, he batted .286/.358/.500. In five seasons as a pitcher, he posted a 2.52 ERA across 543 innings.

There are some uncertainties about how he will translate to Major League Baseball, where hitters are much better and pitchers are much better, but the lower risk profile is attractive. If he struggles as a hitter, you can focus on him as a pitcher. Or vice versa. Ohtani reportedly prefers a smaller market and a market that doesn’t already have a high-profile Japanese player. He already turned down the Yankees. He’s looking at the Mariners, Giants, and Padres as his preferred destinations.

The Winter Meetings are at Disney World early next week. Many expect things to start picking up at that point. Free agents and their representatives will be on hand. Executives will get the chance to talk face-to-face. Perhaps Shohei Ohtani signs and a Giancarlo Stanton deal is consummated over drinks at the lobby bar. That could skew the MLB futures market, so it’s best to take a look at it now.

Back on November 2, we took our first look and that included the Indians (+750), Cubs (+750), Angels (+3300), Brewers (+2500), and our ultimate long shot of the Phillies (+8000). For consistency’s sake, we’ll stay with one sportsbook and that will be BetOnline, but, as always, it is in your best interest to shop around for the best prices.

Here are the World Series futures odds as of December 4:

Arizona Diamondbacks +2000

Atlanta Braves +8000

Baltimore Orioles +4000

Boston Red Sox +1200

Chicago Cubs +800

Chicago White Sox +8000

Cincinnati Reds +10000

Cleveland Indians +700

Colorado Rockies +2500

Detroit Tigers +12500

Houston Astros +650

Kansas City Royals +5000

Los Angeles Angels +3300

Los Angeles Dodgers +600

Miami Marlins +10000

Milwaukee Brewers +2500

Minnesota Twins +2500

New York Mets +2800

New York Yankees +700

Oakland Athletics +12500

Philadelphia Phillies +8000

Pittsburgh Pirates +6600

San Diego Padres +12500

San Francisco Giants +2500

Seattle Mariners +3300

St. Louis Cardinals +1600

Tampa Bay Rays +4000

Texas Rangers +3300

Toronto Blue Jays +2500

Washington Nationals +1000

Things basically look the same. The Indians are down from +750 to +700, but, as an Indians fan, I have been more than underwhelmed with their offseason. The Cubs are up from +750 to +800. The Padres are down from +15000 to +12500 with the Ohtani rumors and a similar move for the Giants has lowered their price from +3300 to +2500. The Twins have taken some mild investment from +3300 to +2500. The A’s have been lowered from +12500 to +10000 in what is probably just a move to limit any possible exposure. The Orioles price has moved down slightly. The Dodgers have gone up from +450 to +600. St. Louis has moved down from +2000 to +1600. The Mets are down from +3300 to +2800 with the hiring of Mickey Callaway as manager.

Once those free agent dominoes fall and trades start taking place, we’ll see some adjustments. For now, let’s see if there are any other teams to add to the card:

Los Angeles Angels (+3300) – We’ve already talked about them, but the Angels are not fully out on Shohei Ohtani at this point. The extension for Justin Upton makes for a nice inclusion for the 2018 season and beyond. A healthier pitching staff would be a boost. There are some free agent relief arms of interest. I still think they’re one of the better medium shots on the board.

Boston Red Sox (+1200) – The more I look at this season, the more I would consider the Red Sox. The Yankees certainly have the right core in place to make a run, but I think their offseason is going to be rather quiet as they try to position themselves for a run at a Manny Machado type in 2018. Bryce Harper is certainly a possibility as well, especially since the short porch would help his numbers. He may go to Chicago to be with best friend Kris Bryant. The Red Sox should be aggressive. They should have a savvier coaching staff with manager Alex Cora, a player that has a better grasp of analytics than John Farrell. Their price has gone up from +1000 to +1200 and there seems to be some value on that with a front-heavy rotation and some money to play with in free agency.

We’ll revisit this after all of the Winter Meetings dust settles, but keep an eye on the latest and see if you can snag some MLB futures value as dominoes start to fall.

 

-END OF DECEMBER 4, 2017 UPDATE-

 

For 20 MLB fan bases, the 2018 season officially began on October 2. It was a different story for the 10 teams that made the playoffs. Their 2018 seasons started when elimination occurred. For the Houston Astros, it will be a few days before their 2018 season begins.

Sure, that’s not entirely true, as front offices have been preparing for the future for a while, but the page has officially turned and now we’re looking ahead to 2018 as well. Spring Training starts in just over three months and Opening Day is less than five months away with a late-March start to the season. That means that odds are already out for next year’s champion.

Our friends at BetOnline Sportsbook have hit the board with their 2018 World Series odds. These are sorted alphabetically and by rotation number, so take a look at where your favorite team is priced to be the next Fall Classic champion.

Arizona Diamondbacks +2000

Atlanta Braves +8000

Baltimore Orioles +5000

Boston Red Sox +1000

Chicago Cubs +750

Chicago White Sox +8000

Cincinnati Reds +10000

Cleveland Indians +750

Colorado Rockies +2500

Detroit Tigers +15000

Houston Astros +600

Kansas City Royals +6600

Los Angeles Angels +3300

Los Angeles Dodgers +450

Miami Marlins +10000

Milwaukee Brewers +2500

Minnesota Twins +3300

New York Mets +3300

New York Yankees +700

Oakland Athletics +10000

Philadelphia Phillies +8000

Pittsburgh Pirates +6600

San Diego Padres +15000

San Francisco Giants +3300

Seattle Mariners +3300

St. Louis Cardinals +2000

Tampa Bay Rays +5000

Texas Rangers +3300

Toronto Blue Jays +2200

Washington Nationals +1000

There will be a lot of player movement between then and now. With an enormous free agent class of high-priced talent coming out in 2018, it will be interesting to see how the offseason shakes out. Trades will be made. Free agents will be signed. Will the big-market teams be as active this winter or will they hold off until they have a shot to bid on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado? Will they spend anyway any worry about it later?

We’ll have to do a little bit of speculating with who some of these teams will add if we’re going to get invested in the futures market now. Nevertheless, there are some teams that present some betting value as we look ahead to the Winter Meetings and the Hot Stove.

Cleveland Indians (+750) – The Indians are one of the best bets on the board because of how their division shakes out. Even with Minnesota’s appearance in the Wild Card Game, the Indians will be right there with the Dodgers in terms of division futures odds. Getting to the playoffs is the biggest part of the battle. The Indians will have to replace Bryan Shaw and possibly Carlos Santana and Jay Bruce, but they have one of the most creative front offices in baseball and a bit of an unexpected influx of available cash with a minority owner that joined the fray during the 2016 season. The Indians just had the best season ever for a pitching staff per Fangraphs in the midst of a massive power explosion. Everything lines up for them to return to the postseason and make some noise when they get there. You might be able to get a better price on the Indians depending on what the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros do over the winter to improve, but this is still a decent number.

Chicago Cubs (+750) – Similarly, the Chicago Cubs have a pretty clear path to the postseason. The Brewers are going to be active this winter in terms of plugging their holes, but with the Cardinals and Pirates down a few pegs and the Reds still in the midst of a rebuild, the Cubs are pretty close to a lock to win the division and make the playoffs. That’s the biggest part of the battle, as mentioned with Cleveland. Washington (+1000) also falls in this category, but you already knew that.

Los Angeles Angels (+3300) – Let’s take some gambles now. Tying up money for about 365 days is a challenge and we need to get something back out of the investment. I would expect a massive hangover for both the Astros and the Dodgers. Those two pitching staffs were pushed to the brink. In Houston’s case, the lineup is young, but it may take some time to get back into the rhythm of the season. The Angels are a decent bet to take advantage. Garrett Richards will hopefully be healthy. The Angels still have the best player on the planet in Mike Trout, the best defender on the planet in Andrelton Simmons, and added Justin Upton. There is money in this market, so the Angels should be very active in securing pitching staff upgrades.

Milwaukee Brewers (+2500) – The Astros may have won the World Series, but the biggest winner was analytics. For the second straight year, a very savvy, progressive front office won the sport’s biggest prize. The Brewers have gone all-in on analytics and the players have bought in. Jimmy Nelson’s injury is a black mark, but Chase Anderson had a career year. Zach Davies got back on track. The lineup boasts a lot of athletic talent. Milwaukee will look for the right fits and should be a very active team. After all, David Stearns has turned over about 60 percent of the 40-man roster that he inherited and more changes are coming.

Finally, if you want a really big long shot…

Philadelphia Phillies (+8000) – Say what?! Believe it. The Phillies are in a fairly big market and the time might be right to spend. When it comes to prospect depth, Philadelphia is one of just a handful of teams that has what it takes to secure Giancarlo Stanton from Miami if the Marlins fire sale comes to fruition. Philadelphia has a bona fide ace in Aaron Nola. When it comes to the NL East, it is basically Washington and nobody else, given the state of the Mets and their team with a first-year manager. The Braves have a ton of young talent, but they also aren’t quite there and don’t have an ace. Gabe Kapler is an extremely positive manager with a love of analytics and the Phillies are going to be on the rise very soon. Kapler was in the front office of the Dodgers prior to taking the gig, so he has worked alongside Andrew Friedman and some other very smart people. This is probably a year premature, but this is a team to be on the lookout for in coming seasons.

Checkout our Free Pick Contests in the Tracker!

Win Cash Prizes Daily! Follow Cappers Picks. 

Click Here Now

Leave a Reply

Power LinesView all

(967) BOSTON @ (968) PHILADELPHIA | 7:05 pm 8/14/2018

Play Line: BOSTON -119
BTB PowerLine: BOSTON -177

Edge On: BOSTON 58Bet Now
(961) CHI WHITE SOX @ (962) DETROIT | 7:10 pm 8/14/2018

Play Line: DETROIT -131
BTB PowerLine: DETROIT -168

Edge On: DETROIT 37Bet Now
(971) CLEVELAND @ (972) CINCINNATI | 7:10 pm 8/14/2018

Play Line: CLEVELAND -205
BTB PowerLine: CLEVELAND -250

Edge On: CLEVELAND 45Bet Now