Pablo López will get the start for the Twins (87-75, 47-34 home) as they host the Blue Jays (89-73, 46-35 away) at Target Field. The Blue Jays will give the starting nod to Kevin Gausman. Check out my prediction for game one of this American League matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins.


The Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Runs

This game will be played at Target Field at 4:38 ET on Tuesday, October 3rd.


  • Against the runline, the Twins have gone just 1-2 in their last three home games.
  • Over their last five games on the road, Toronto is 3-2 against the runline.
  • Opponents are hitting just .189 against Kevin Gausman in his last five starts.


Entering with a record of 89-73, the Blue Jays are in 3rd place in the AL East and are losers of two straight games. So far, they have a road win percentage of 56.8% compared to 53.1% at home. Toronto’s overall series record stands at 29-19-2.

Entering the season with a 12-9 record, Kevin Gausman is making his 32nd appearance of the year. His ERA stands at 3.16 and he has held opposing batters to a .224 average. On the road, Gausman is 7-5 with an ERA of 4.10, while he is 5-4 at home with a 3.54 ERA. Teams have mustered up a .364 slugging percentage against him this season.

Kevin Gausman recently received a no-decision in his outing against the Yankees, despite tossing seven innings and earning a quality start. The Blue Jays ultimately fell 2-0, with Gausman surrendering three hits and no earned runs.

The Blue Jays have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 13 home runs over their last ten games. Compared to other clubs, this is 6th best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 15th in home runs and 12th in slugging percentage. Overall, Toronto is averaging 4.6 runs per game (14th).

The Blue Jays’ offense has been spearheaded by Daulton Varsho in their last ten games, as he leads the team with three home runs. His season-long total of 20 long balls is a testament to his power at the plate. Despite this impressive display of power, Varsho’s overall batting average is still just .220.


The Twins enter today’s game with an overall record of 87-75, including putting together an above .500 mark at home (47-34). This year, Minnesota has played in 50 series and have gone 27-18-5. Currently, they are 1st in the AL Central.

Pablo López has been a consistent presence in the Marlins’ rotation this season, appearing in 32 games and registering an 11-8 record with a 3.67 ERA. His WHIP stands at 1.16, while his slugging percentage allowed is .379. The right-hander has racked up 234 strikeouts over the course of the season, averaging 10.86 K’s per nine innings. On the road, López has gone 6-5 with an ERA of 3.34, while he holds a 5-3 record and 4.75 ERA at home.

In his latest start, Pablo López squared off against the Athletics and surrendered three runs on five hits over 4 1/3 frames. Despite not earning the victory or defeat, the Twins emerged victorious with a 6-4 final score.

Across their last five games, the Twins’ offense is 5th in batting average, leading to an average of 6 runs per contest in that span. Overall, they are the 10th ranked scoring offense and posted a season-long OPS of .753 on 233 (3rd). On average, they have struckout 10 times per game compard to 3.7 walks.

Max Kepler has been a key contributor to the Minnesota Twins’ offense this season, boasting a .260 batting average and .484 slugging percentage. Over the team’s last ten games, he has been particularly impressive, leading the Twins in hits while batting .379.