To undertake this sports betting thing in any kind of serious fashion, you have to, in a manner speaking, look at it kind of like a football coach. You are going to analyze every angle you can and gather all the data that you see out there. Naturally, you want to be ready for anything. But at the same time, you have to be careful; sometimes you find TOO MUCH for your own good. There’s a saying that we use in this business – “Overanalysis Leads to Paralysis.” There’s a variation of it as well – “Dig Long, Dig Wrong.” Whichever way it is expressed, to VietBet customers it should mean the same thing; don’t get so overloaded that you out-think yourself.
I remember the first year that I ever used information from the Internet to handicap sporting events. I didn’t even have a computer or Internet access at the time; I would go to my friend’s office and visit so many sites and print up so many things – articles, charts, statistical layouts – that I exhausted all the paper he had available.
It was the worst year I ever experienced in handicapping.
I think it’s because I had so much information at my disposal that it caused a huge data overload – it was the ultimate in clutter. I found myself looking at 100 reasons I should like one side, and 99 reasons to like the other. And I got into so much minutiae that I missed the big picture. So obviously I was thinking, “what am I doing wrong?” Well, I just wasn’t seeing the forest through the trees. Isn’t that the way the saying goes?
In other words, I wasn’t focusing on the overall picture, and the basic things that could mean the difference in a game, from the standpoint of who would win against the pointspread.
You have to try to avoid getting yourself into this trap. When I would suggest VietBet patrons do is go from the “outside inward,” meaning that you want to start out with the fundamental things that are going to make one team win and the other lose. What are the factors involved, whether it entails matchups, situations, strength versus weaknesses? Also when you see injuries – you have to be able to evaluate what they really mean, and not make conclusions about them in and of themselves. How much value do they have for you within your evaluation model?
And then if you see some of the small details, factor those in if in some way they tip the scales. You can look at some things like analytics or metrics, if you know a little something about the way they are compiled, and what they signify. They could be of some use to you, because the general public may not be aware of their existence. As we know, “public” action can have a bearing on which way the line moves. And the anticipation of such action can affect the way the oddsmaker stes a line.
You’ll see analytics everywhere now – in baseball, teams run their organizations based on it, and football, basketball and hockey are coming on strong. So they obviously carry some importance. Just don’t throw EVERYTHING into the pot at once and hope that you are going to come out with an answer that will give you so much clarity. Do what these front offices do – draw your conclusions as to what is worthwhile to put some weight on, and make your determination as to what is inconsequential. In the coming weeks, we will talk about some of the things that might have more value over others.
Just remember, as a blanket statement, it is the INTERPRETATION of all the data you have in front of you that is the real key to any success you might have in handicapping sporting events.
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