The BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California, is one of the most important non-grand-slam tournaments of the season, both on the ATP and WTA Tours. The ATP 1000 outdoor hard court tournament attracted all of the top 32 players in the world, each of which earned an automatic bye into the second round.

With the exception of world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, who was shockingly eliminated in the Round of 32, things have mostly gone as expected with three of the same semi-finalists as the 2023 BNP Paribas Open.

Here’s a look back at the early round results and a preview of what to expect this weekend.

Early Rounds Recap

Djokovic needed three sets to win his first match against Aleksander Vukic and looked surprisingly human in his third-round match against Luca Nardi. The Italian, who only earned a spot in the tournament as the lucky loser, beat Djokovic 6-4, 3-6, 6-3. Nardi lost in the fourth round to Tommy Paul, who is one of the four semi-finalists this year.

Paul will take on Russian Daniil Medvedev in one of the two semi-finals on Friday. Medvedev, a runner-up in last year’s BNP Paribas Open, has dropped just one set while beating Grigor Dimitrov, Holger Rune, and Sebastian Korda.

Read: Get our best sportsbooks right now!

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, the No. 3 and No. 2 players in the world, respectively, meet in the other semi-final. Sinner has yet to lose this season and could move into the world No. 2 spot with a win over Alcaraz, who won last year at Indian Wells. Alcaraz is coming off an impressive 6-3, 6-1 win over Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals, while Sinner beat Jiri Lehecka 6-3, 6-3 in the quarters.

Semi-Final Matches

Daniil Medvedev (-260) vs. Tommy Paul (+220)

Medvedev is 2-0 in two career matches against Paul and should improve to 3-0, despite the fact Paul is playing some of the best tennis of his career right now. The American won his second career ATP Tour title this season and also reached another final, but Medvedev beat him 6-2, 6-1 last September at the China Open in Beijing.

Carlos Alcaraz (+120) vs. Jannik Sinner (-140)

This will be the ninth match on the ATP Tour between Alcaraz and Sinner and they’ve split the first eight. Sinner, however, has won each of the last two matches, both of which were in 2023, and is a remarkable 16-0 this season. He won the Australian Open and ABN AMRO Open and has only dropped four sets in those matches. He’s 2-2 in four career matches against Alcaraz.

Final Betting Prediction

While a rematch of last year’s final at Indian Wells (Alcaraz vs. Medvedev) is entirely possible, it’s hard to bet against Sinner right now. The Italian led his country to a Davis Cup victory in late 2023 and has been literally unbeatable since, going 16-0 in 2024. A Medvedev-Sinner final would be a rematch of the 2024 Australian Open final, which Medvedev lost after winning the first two sets. Should they meet, he would be especially motivated to get the job done.

Finals Pick: Medvedev def. Sinner