Connor Brown, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and the Ottawa Senators will do battle against Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, and the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena in an Eastern Conference showdown. AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh will showcase the game, and the puck drops at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 3.

Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Odds

Pittsburgh heads into the matchup as the obvious favorite with a -285 moneyline. The line for the Senators is standing at +245 and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 7 goals (-110 for the over, -110 for the under).

Pittsburgh is 37-27 straight up (SU) and has earned 0.6 units for moneyline bettors this year. That winning percentage, the third-best in the Metropolitan Division in this young season, isn’t too far off from to the 44-38 record the team managed during the 2018-19 season campaign. Out of the team’s 64 regular season outings, 33 of them have gone under the total, while 29 have gone over and just two have pushed. The team’s 22-10 SU at home this season.

The Penguins have converted on 20.3 percent of their power play opportunities this year, a mark that’s right around league average. On the other hand, their penalty kill is rated 12th overall, and they’ve successfully killed off 81.7 percent of all penalties.

Averaging 27.4 saves per game with a .924 save percentage, Tristan Jarry (20-12-1) has been the top goalkeeper for Pittsburgh this year. If the Pens, however, choose to give him a breather, the team might roll with Matt Murray (18-16-16 record, .900 save percentage, 2.85 goals against average).

Over on the other bench, Ottawa is 23-43 straight up (SU) and has lost 13.3 units for moneyline bettors thus far. 35 of its contests have gone over the total, while 30 have gone under the total and just one has pushed. As the road team, the Senators are 6-24 SU.

The Senators have converted on just 15.4 percent of their power play opportunities this year, a mark that’s ranked 29th in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 26th overall and it’s successfully killed off 77.1 percent of all penalties.

Craig Anderson (3.21 goals against average and .901 save percentage) has been the main option in goal for Ottawa. Anderson is averaging 26.2 saves per game and has nine wins, 21 losses, and two overtime losses to his credit.

Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins Free Picks

NHL Prediction: SU Winner – Penguins, O/U – Over


Betting Notes

Penalties and power plays may prove to be even more key than usual tonight. The Senators are 8-17 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 14-21 in games where they serve fewer than 10 penalty minutes, in total. The Penguins are 17-12 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 26-17 in games where total penalty minutes are in the single digits.

Ottawa is 1-5 in games decided by a shootout this season while Pittsburgh is 3-0 in shootouts.

Pittsburgh might hold an advantage if it’s a tight one late. The team’s 16-10 in games decided by one goal, while Ottawa is only 9-17 in such games.

Three of Pittsburgh’s last five games have gone under the total.

Ottawa skaters have averaged 9.2 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 10.7 giveaways per game (ranked 20th overall).

Pittsburgh has averaged 10.4 giveaways over its last five home games, a rise over its season average of 9.2 giveaways per game (the 11th-fewest in the NHL).

This game features two of the more aggressive defenses in the league. Ottawa skaters have accounted for the league’s third-most hits per game (27.9) while the Pens have handed the second-most (28.1).