Week 7 of the 2021 college football season continues Thursday, October 14, with a couple of games around the country, so we bring you the best Navy vs. Memphis betting pick and odds, as the Midshipmen square off against the Tigers at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis.

According to Bovada Sportsbook, the Tigers are 9.5-point home favorites to win this American Athletic Conference showdown. Memphis has won three of its last four games against Navy, but the Midshipmen have covered three times in that span.

The Midshipmen battled bravely against No. 24 SMU

The Navy Midshipmen (1-4; 3-2 ATS) are back on the losing path, coming off a 31-24 home loss to the No. 24 SMU Mustangs in Week 6. After a surprising 34-30 home win over UCF as 15-point underdogs, the Midshipmen tried their best to upset the Mustangs as 13.5-point dogs.

Navy limited SMU to only 80 rushing yards, but as it was expected, the Mustangs exploited the Midshipmen’s secondary for 324 yards. On the other side of the ball, Navy finished with 177 rushing yards, while sophomore QB Tai Lavatai completed four of his seven passing attempts for 64 yards and a TD.

The Midshipmen lean on their ground game, averaging 220.0 rushing yards per contest (21st in the nation). They are scoring only 17.6 points per game (121st) while surrendering 32.2 points in a return (tied-106th).

Memphis hopes to stop a three-game slide

The Memphis Tigers (3-3; 2-4 ATS) started the 2021 CFB season with three consecutive wins. Since then, it’s been a bumpy road for the Tigers, who have gone 0-3 straight up and ATS over the previous three weeks.

The Tigers are coming off a 35-29 defeat at the Tulsa Golden Hurricane this past Saturday. They failed to cover a 3-point spread despite 614 total yards on the offensive end. Freshman QB Seth Henigan tossed the ball a whopping 57 times for 463 yards and a couple of scores and picks; Calvin Austin III had 13 receptions for 200 yards and a TD, while Brandon Thomas added 18 carries for 77 yards and two touchdowns.

However, the Tigers struggled on the defensive end once more, allowing 235 rushing yards to the Golden Hurricane. Memphis is now yielding 32.7 points per game (109th in the country) on 141.2 rushing yards (60th) and 316.3 passing yards (128th).



  • 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the American Athletic Conference
  • 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Memphis


  • 1-4 ATS in the last five games overall
  • 1-7 ATS in the last eight games against the American Athletic Conference 

Navy vs. Memphis Pick

The Tigers have just allowed 5.1 yards per rush at Tulsa, while the Midshipmen have kept it close against the SMU’s powerful offense. Navy will run the ball heavily in this one, but the visitors will also have a chance to take advantage of the Tigers’ fragile secondary.

Memphis should win on the back of its prolific offense. However, I don’t feel comfortable with a spread because of the Tigers’ leaky defense. Memphis is only 2-6 ATS in its last eight outings as a favorite of 9.5 or more points (7-1 straight up).

Pick: Take Navy Midshipmen +10.0 at -130        

The Total:

Although both teams will carry the pigskin a lot and eat the clock, they should combine for at least 53 points. I’ve mentioned the Tigers’ defensive woes. They’ve yielded 29 or more points in each of their last five showings.

On the other side, the Midshipmen have surrendered 28 or more in each of their five outings this season. The over is 9-4 in Navy’s last 13 games played in October, and it is 9-2 in the Tigers’ previous 11 showings in October.

Pick: Go over 52.5 points at -110