The MLB is in a full swing on Friday, September 30 as we have even 16 games on the schedule, but in this one, the hosts must get a win, so you can’t afford to miss out on the best Marlins vs. Brewers betting pick and odds.
Miami and Milwaukee will play the second of a four-game series at American Family Field, and the Brewers are -175 moneyline favorites on BetDSI Sportsbook, while the total is set at 6.5 runs. These NL rivals have met on three occasions before this series, and Milwaukee won two of those games.
Marlins split the series with the Mets
The Miami Marlins have been playing in a hot and cold form recently and that form translated into a divisional series against the New York Mets as it ended 1-1. Miami opened that two-game series with a 6-4 win but lost the following 5-4 in the extra inning.
The Marlins had a 4-0 lead in the upper 7th inning, but the Mets scored four runs in the bottom 7th and 8th to force extra innings and later secured a victory. Jesus Luzardo (3-7) recorded a quality start after allowing two runs on four hits with six strikeouts and two walks in 6.0 innings. Dylan Floro dropped to a 1-3 record after taking a loss, while Bryan de la Cruz led the offense with a pair of RBIs.
Sandy Alcantara (14-8) is getting his 32nd start of the year when he meets the Brewers on Friday. The 27-year-old right-hander owns a remarkable 2.32 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 199/50 K/BB ratio over 220.2 innings of work.
Brewers salvaged a series against the Cardinals
Just like the Marlins, the Milwaukee Brewers split the series with their divisional foes St. Louis Cardinals. They lost the opener 6-2 but bounced back to split the series with a 5-1 victory. Milwaukee and Philadelphia have the same 83-72 record and with only seven games to go, they will be fighting for the remaining wildcard spot in the National League.
Victor Caratini chipped in two RBIs in the win over the Cards and boosted the Brewers’ playoff hopes. Now, Milwaukee has two home series against Miami and Arizona to close the regular season and is looking to clinch a wildcard place. Brandon Woodruff improved to a 13-4 record after pitching for six scoreless innings with ten strikeouts and a walk. It was Woodruff’s four straight 10+ strikeout start.
Corbin Burnes (11-8) will start for the 32nd time this year when he faces the Marlins on Friday. The 27-year-old right-hander has a 3.11 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 231/51 K/BB ratio across 191.0 innings.
- 3-9 in the last 12 road games
- 2-8 in the last ten road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower
- 5-2 in the last seven overall
- 4-1 in the last five games vs. a right-handed starter
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Corbin Burnes started once against Miami this year and was excellent with a 1.29 ERA over 7.0 innings in a no-decision. Sandy Alcantara didn’t face the Brewers this season, but after allowing four runs in his last three starts (24.0 innings), it’s clear that Milwaukee is not going to have an easy job on Friday. The Brewers are scoring 4.89 runs against right-handed pitchers, unlike Miami, who is averaging 3.87 runs per game against righties. I am backing the hosts because it’s a must-win game for them, while the Marlins can be relaxed here.
Pick: Take the Brewers at -1.5 Run Line (+135)
I usually back Over when I encounter such a low run total (6.5), but given how these starters are pitching, it would be surprising if we have a high-scoring affair here. Still, I am going to lower this total a bit and back at lower odds because it’s an opportunity I rarely miss. One of the arguments for Over is the fact that Over is 4-0 in Burnes’ last four starts vs. National League East opponents. Also, Over is 5-1 in the last six H2H meetings in Milwaukee, while Over is 4-1-1 in the Marlins’ previous six road games.
Pick: Go Over 6 runs (-120)