The 2022 Big West Conference Championship Tournament starts Tuesday, March 8, with the first-round matchups at Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nevada, so we have prepared the best Cal Poly vs. UC Davis betting pick and odds.

The Mustangs meet the Aggies for the second time this season. Back on January 15, Cal Poly beat UC Davis 82-74 as a 5.5-point home underdog. This time around, the Mustangs are 5.5-point dogs at the neutral site, while the totals sit at 127.5 points on BetOnline Sportsbook. 

Cal Poly aims for its third straight victory                

The Cal Poly Mustangs (7-20; 14-12 ATS) finished the regular season bottom of the table despite winning their last two games over UC Irvine 65-64 and UC San Diego 80-76 at home. Junior forward Alimamy Koroma dropped 27 points on the Anteaters, while sophomore guard Kobe Sanders and sophomore wing Brantly Stevenson had 17 points apiece in that four-point victory to the Tritons.

Sophomore G Camren Pierce handed out 11 assists against UC San Diego, and he’s averaged 8.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.1 dimes per game this season. Koroma has been Cal Poly’s best player in 2021-22, tallying 13.7 points and 5.6 boards per contest.

The Mustangs enter the championship tournament as the No. 303 in the NCAA NET Rankings and No. 301 in the KenPom rankings. They score 94.3 points per 100 possessions (332nd in the nation) and surrender 106.3 in a return (236th). 

UC Davis looks to snap its two-game skid                

The UC Davis Aggies (12-10; 11-8-1 ATS) have dropped three of their last four games, finishing the regular season at the seventh spot of the Big West Conference standings with a 5-6 record. In their regular-season finale, the Aggies nearly upset the No. 2 seed, playing as 4.5-point road underdogs.

Four Aggies average points in double figures, and sophomore guard Ezra Manjon leads the charge with 15.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Fellow sophomore G Elijah Pepper tallies 15.3 points and 5.0 rebounds per contest, while junior guard Caleb Fuller adds 11.9 points, 5.4 boards, and 2.1 assists a night.

UC Davis is the No. 212 in both of the latest NCAA NET Rankings and KenPom rankings. The Aggies score 99.8 points per 100 possessions (251st in the nation) and allow 102.9 in a return (164th).

Trends:

Cal Poly:

  • 4-14 ATS in the last 18 games against UC Davis  

UC Davis:

  • 4-1 ATS in the last five games played on Tuesday

Cal Poly vs. UC Davis Picks

The Mustangs outlasted the Aggies in January thanks to a terrific offensive display, while Alimamy Koroma tortured UC Davis for 21 points on 9-for-12 shooting from the field. It was their first victory over the Aggies since 2017. Cal Poly is only 3-15 straight up and 4-14 ATS in its last 18 meetings with UC Davis.

I’m expecting the Aggies to get revenge in this clash. On paper, they have greater depth and are a better team than Cal Poly. If they find a way to slow down Alimamy Koroma, the Aggies should easily cover a 5.5-point spread.

Pick: Take UC Davis -5.5 at -110                      

The Total:

The under is 8-2 in UC Davis’ last ten outings, 3-1 in Cal Poly’s previous four, and 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two schools. Neither team prefers to play at a fast pace, so I’ll ride those betting trends.

The Mustangs record only 64.8 possessions per 40 minutes (316th in the nation). They rank 81st in the nation in the opponent field goal percentage (41.5%). On the other side, the Aggies register 67.2 possessions per 40 minutes (188th) and rank 74th in the country in the opponent field goal percentage (41.4%).

Pick: Go under 127.5 points at -110