Heading into game four of this National League matchup, it will be Bailey Falter on the mound for the Pirates (51-63, 27-30 home), facing off against the Braves (72-40, 35-20 away) and Bryce Elder. Find out my prediction for today’s Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates game in Pittsburgh.

ATLANTA BRAVES VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 Runs

This game will be played at PNC Park at 12:35 ET on Thursday, August 10th.

WHY BET THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES:

  • Against the runline, the Pirates have gone 4-1 in their five games at home.
  • The Braves are just 3-7 vs. the runline in their last ten road games.
  • Bryce Elder has struggled of late, coming in with an ERA of 7.89 over his last four starts.

ATLANTA BRAVES LOOK TO CONTINUE WINNING WAYS ON THE ROAD

Heading into today’s game, the Braves are 1st in the NL East with an overall record of 72-40. When looking at their performance in their 36 series, Atlanta is 25-9-2. Against below .500 teams, the Braves are 33-33 while going 35-20 on the road and 37-20 at home.

Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder has been a force to be reckoned with in 2023, boasting an 8-3 record and 3.43 ERA. On the road, Elder’s ERA is 4.49, while it drops to 4.17 when he pitches at home. His WHIP stands at 1.23 and opposing teams are batting .238 against him with a slugging percentage of .376.

Bryce Elder’s last start was a difficult one, as he surrendered five earned runs and seven hits over 4 1/3 innings. The Braves ultimately fell to the Cubs 8-6 in the contest.

The Braves have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 4 home runs over their last five games. Compared to other clubs, this is 8th best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 1st in home runs and 1st in slugging percentage. Overall, Atlanta is averaging 5.7 runs per game (3rd).

Matt Olson has been a major contributor to the Braves’ offensive success in 2023, leading the team with 39 home runs and 100 RBIs. His slugging percentage of .600 is indicative of his impressive power at the plate.

WILL THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?

Through 114 games, the Pirates have a record of 51-63. This mark includes going 12-20-4 across their 36 series. Currently, Pittsburgh is 4th in the NL Central and have a 27-30 record at home while going 24-33 on the road. So far, the Pirates have gone 24-43 against teams with above .500 records.

Bailey Falter has had a difficult season thus far, with nine appearances resulting in an 0-7 record and an ERA of 4.87. His slugging percentage allowed is .484 and his WHIP stands at 1.47. He has 30 strikeouts so far, averaging 6.09 per nine innings pitched. When pitching away from home, Falter’s record is 0-5 with an ERA of 4.57, while his home record is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.19.

Bailey Falter’s latest start against Milwaukee saw him concede one run and six hits in four frames. Unfortunately, the Pirates were unable to come away with a win, as they fell 3-2.

This season, the Pirates are 24th in the league at 4.2 runs per game. Over their last ten games, they have a combined batting average of .236 (15th) leading to 4.6 runs per contest. Overall, they are generating 3.4 walks per game compared to 8 strikeouts. Pittsburgh’s on-base percentage of .312 has them 15th in the MLB.

Bryan Reynolds has been a consistent offensive presence for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season, boasting a .266 batting average and .455 slugging percentage. In the team’s last ten games, Reynolds has been on fire, leading the Pirates in hits with a .387 batting average.