Heading into game four of this NL East matchup, it will be Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies (63-52, 32-22 home), facing off against the Nationals (50-65, 28-31 away) and Patrick Corbin. Find out my prediction for today’s Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies game in Philadelphia.


The Pick: Washington Nationals +1.5 Runs

This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 ET on Thursday, August 10th.


  • Against the runline, the Phillies have gone just 4-6 in their last ten home games.
  • In their last five games as the underdog, the Nationals have put together a runline record of 3-2.
  • Aaron Nola has given up five away runs across his last five starts.


Leading up to today’s game, the Nationals are 5th in the NL East on a record of 50-65. Overall, they have played in 36 different series, going 13-21-2. When playing above .500 teams, the Nationals are 50-65, and currently hold win percentages of 39.3% at home and 47.5% on the road.

Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin has had a challenging season thus far, with an overall record of 7-11 and an ERA of 5.03. His ERA on the road is 5.50, while it is slightly lower at home at 4.99. Corbin’s WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) stands at 1.50, and he has allowed a batting average of .287 against him. Opposing teams have put together a slugging percentage of .458 against him this season.

Despite not earning the win, Patrick Corbin had a quality start in Washington’s 6-3 victory over Cincinnati. The left-hander pitched 6 1/3 innings, surrendering three earned runs.

As a team, Washington has scuffled at the plate of late, with a combined batting average of just .211 over their last ten games. Compared to other teams, this is just 25th in that span. When looking at the team’s power numbers, they have a season-long slugging percentage of .399% while going deep a total of 104 times (25th). Overall, the Nationals are 20th in the MLB at 4.3 runs per contest.

Lane Thomas has been a major contributor to the Nationals’ offensive performance in 2023, leading the team with 20 home runs and 67 RBIs. His slugging percentage is .487 for the season.


For the season, the Phillies have put together a record of 63-52 and are 2nd in the NL East, putting them 10.5 games out of first place. Philadelphia’s overall series record sits at 20-13-2. On the road, they have gone 31-30 and 32-22 at home.

Starter Aaron Nola has been a key contributor for the Phillies this season, boasting a 9-8 record in 23 appearances. His ERA stands at 4.58, with an impressive K/9 of 9.23, while his FIP and OBP are 4.30 and .274 respectively.

Aaron Nola’s most recent start against the Royals ended in a 7-5 loss for the Phillies, with the right-hander surrendering five runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings. Despite the defeat, Nola has had a successful season thus far in 2023.

During their last five games, Philadelphia is the 14th ranked offense in terms of batting average. In these games, they have hit a combined .231 and are averaging 5.4 runs per game. Across the entire season, the Phillies are hitting .256 with an OBP of .322 while averaging 4.6 runs per contest. This figure puts them 13th in the league.

Over the past five games, Trea Turner has been a force at the plate for the Phillies, leading the team in hits and batting .417. This season, he’s hitting .243 with 40 RBIs.