The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins wrap up their three-game series at LoanDepot Park on Wednesday, August 18, 2021, so we’re taking a closer look at this NL East showdown in Miami, Florida, to get you the best Braves vs. Marlins betting pick and odds.
Atlanta thrashed off Miami 12-2 in the opener last Monday and easily satisfied -161 odds. The Braves are firm favorites for the closing contest as well, while the Marlins are listed as +175 home underdogs with a total of 8.0 runs on BookMaker Sportsbook.
The Braves continue to impress in August
Excluding the middle contest of this series, the Atlanta Braves have won 11 of their first 14 games in August to take over in the NL East. They’ve scored 85 runs in the process while smacking 26 home runs and 120 hits in 481 at-bats.
The Braves have pitched well so far this month, too. They own a 3.52 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and a .226 batting average against. The Brave ‘pen has registered a 3.68 ERA and 3.65 FIP over the last couple of weeks, striking out 10.5 per nine frames.
Charlie Morton will get the Marlins on Wednesday, and he’s 1-1 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts against Miami in 2021. In his previous date with the Marlins, the 37-year-old righty tossed seven scoreless innings while yielding just a couple of hits and walks, but in the other three, Charlie has allowed a whopping 13 earned runs across 15.1 frames of work.
Morton has gone 4-1 over his previous seven starts, posting a shiny 2.57 ERA and a .196 batting average against to go with a 48/15 K/BB ratio across 42 innings.
The Marlins hope to finish a six-game homestand in style
The Miami Marlins fell to 51-68 on the season following that embarrassing loss to the Braves last Monday. They also put an end to a four-game winning streak, as the Marlins swept a three-game home series against the Cubs after a terrific 7-0 road victory over the San Diego Padres.
Miami is struggling on the mound in August, registering the third-highest ERA in the majors (6.09) and allowing a .285 batting average to their opponents. On the other side of the ball, the Marlins have scored 73 runs on a .255/.309/.429 batting line in their first 15 games this month (7-8 record).
Jesus Luzardo will take the hill Wednesday against the Braves, and the 23-year-old southpaw is 2-1 with a horrible 9.20 ERA in three starts with the Marlins this season. Before he joined Miami in July, Luzardo went 2-4 with a 6.87 ERA in six starts and seven relief appearances with the Oakland Athletics.
- 11-2 in the last 13 games overall
- 9-1 in the last ten games on the road
- 2-6 in the last eight games against Atlanta
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Pick
Jesus Luzardo is having an awful season, and he’s allowed 15 earned runs across 14.2 frames of work in the Marlins’ uniform. The talented lefty will have a tall task to slow down the surging Braves and could easily suffer a proper battering.
Miami’s relievers have struggled mightily over the last two weeks, tallying a 5.55 ERA and allowing 1.54 homers per nine innings. On the other side, the Braves can lean on their bullpen in case of Charlie Morton’s eventual meltdown, so I’m backing the visitors to win.
Pick: Take Atlanta Braves at -190
LoanDepot Park is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors this season. That makes the totals a tricky wager here simply because the Braves are swinging a hot bat at the moment, and the Marlins’ pitching is falling apart.
I’ll go with the over, as the Braves are capable of scoring in double digits on a good day, but betting on the visitors to win seems like the best option in this matchup.
Pick: Go over 8.0 runs at +105