Betting on today’s Maple Leafs and Lightning game? Catch the action at Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL, as the Lightning hosts this showdown at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The over/under for this Atlantic division contest is set at 6.5 goals, with the Lightning being favored by -1.5 at home against the Maple Leafs.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING PICK

The Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5

This game will be played at Amalie Arena at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, April 17th.

WHY BET THE TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING:

  • With the Lightning being favored by 1.5, our NHL analytics models has this one playing out 4-3 in favor of the Lightning.
  • Take the Lightning on the moneyline
  • On the spread, we like Maple Leafs (+1.5)

Does Toronto Have A Chance at Amalie Arena?

As the Maple Leafs head into their 82nd and final game of the season, they currently sit in 3rd place in the Atlantic Division and 5th in the Eastern Conference. With a record of 46-25-10, they have 102 points and have gone 6-4 in their last ten games.

On the road this season, Toronto has gone 24-10-6 and have been the underdog in 16 of their 81 games. Against Eastern Conference opponents, the Maple Leafs are 22-27 and have lost their last three games.

On the season, the Maple Leafs have a puck line record of 32-49, including going 18-22 on the road. In their last ten games, Toronto has gone 5-5 vs. the puck line.

So far, the Leafs have 27 wins by multiple goals and have lost by multiple goals 19 times. They come into the game with three straight losses vs. the puck line and have gone 0-3 vs. the puck line in their last three road games.

For the season, the average number of goals per game in matchups featuring Toronto is 6.9. The season’s average over/under line is currently at 6.5. The Maple Leafs come in with an over/under record of 44-35-2.

The Maple Leafs are 2-1 puck line in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.

In terms of their offensive performance, the Maple Leafs are averaging 3.6 goals per game this season, putting them in the 2nd spot in the NHL. When it comes to shots on goal per game, they are ranked 7th in the league. The Maple Leafs went 24-13 in games where they had more shots than their opponents. However, in games with fewer shots on goal, their record was 20-10.

The leading scorer for Toronto’s offense is Auston Matthews. Coming into the game he has 69 goals, ranking 1st in the NHL. Matthews also comes into the game with 38 assists.

Tampa Bay defense takes on the Maple Leafs ranked 25th in goals allowed. On average, opponents are averaging 29.4 shots per game against Tampa Bay. They also are 17th in shutouts, with 4 shutouts.

Entering the game, goalie Martin Jones has started 18 games this season. His current record stands at 11-7, and his save percentage is 0.443%.

Does Tampa Bay Stand a Chance at Home?

With only one win in their last five games, the Lightning have fallen to 6th in the Eastern Conference and 4th in the Atlantic Division. In the Eastern Conference, Tampa Bay has a record of 25-24 and an overall record of 44-29-8. At home, the Lightning are 24-11-5 this season.

For the year, Tampa Bay has been favored in 50 of their 81 games, going 30-17-3 as the favorite. Over their last ten games, the Lightning have gone 5-5 and have lost two straight games as the favorite.

At home this season, Tampa Bay has gone 22-18 against the puck line and 5-5 in their last ten games. Overall, the Lightning’s puck line record is 42-39, and they have 33 wins by multiple goals.

As the favorite, Tampa Bay’s puck line record is 22-28, and their average scoring margin in those games is +.7 goals per contest. In their last three games, the Lightning have gone 0-3 against the puck line.

This season, Tampa Bay’s games have an average of 6.8 goals per game. The average over/under number for the season is 6.4. The Lightning come in with an over/under performance of 38-37-6.

The Maple Leafs are 2-1 puck line in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.

The Lightning come into the game scoring an average of 3.5 goals per game, putting them 5th in the NHL. Regarding shots targeted at the goal per game, they are 23rd in the league. This season, the Lightning have a 25-14 record in games where they outshoot their opponent. In games with fewer shots on goal, they hold a 18-12 record.

The leading scorer for Tampa Bay’s offense is Brayden Point. Coming into the game he has 45 goals, ranking 8th in the NHL. In addition to his goal scoring, Point has 44 assists this season.

The Lightning defense is currently 25th in goals allowed. Opponents are averaging 29.4 shots per game against Tampa Bay. In terms of shutouts, they come into the game ranked 17th with 4 shutouts.

Entering the game, goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has started 52 games this season. His current record stands at 30-20, and his save percentage is 0.887%.