James Paxton will get the start for the Red Sox (57-51, 30-23 home) as they host the Blue Jays (60-50, 30-26 away) at Fenway Park. The Blue Jays will give the starting nod to Alek Manoah. Check out my prediction for game one of this AL East matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS BOSTON RED SOX BETTING PICK
The Pick: Boston Red Sox -161
This game will be played at Fenway Park at 7:10 ET on Friday, August 4th.
WHY BET THE BOSTON RED SOX:
- In their previous ten games, the Red Sox have a record of 6-4.
- The Red Sox are on a four game winning streak as the home favorite.
- Alek Manoah has struggled of late, coming in with an ERA of 5.16 over his last four starts.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS LOOK TO CONTINUE WINNING WAYS ON THE ROAD
This season, the Blue Jays have played a total of 33 series and are above .500 at 21-12. On the road, Toronto is 30-26 and 30-24 at home. Their overall record of 60-50 has the Blue Jays sitting 3rd in the AL East.
Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Alek Manoah has had a difficult season thus far, with an overall record of 2-8 and an ERA of 5.87. When pitching away from home, Manoah’s ERA is 5.18, but it balloons to 24.26 when he takes the mound at Rogers Centre. His WHIP stands at 1.79, while opponents have hit .256 against him with a slugging percentage of .429.
Alek Manoah did not factor into the decision in his last outing against the Angels, allowing one run and four hits. Despite this, the Blue Jays were able to come away with a 6-1 victory.
Having gone deep 3 times in their last five games, the Blue Jays are 9th in that span. At 4.5 runs per game, Toronto is 14th in the league. This figure has come on a team batting average of .258 while hitting a total of 126 home runs (15th).
Over the last five games, Brandon Belt has been the Blue Jays’ leader in home runs, with one. He has nine home runs total this season, and a batting average of .246.
WILL THE BOSTON RED SOX TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
Heading into this divisional matchup vs. the Blue Jays, the Red Sox have an overall record of 57-51. This mark includes going 16-11 against divisional foes. Currently, they are 4th in the AL East. Boston’s overall series record sits at 18-13-3.
Boston will hand the ball to James Paxton, who is 6-2 on the season. The lefty has gone two games without allowing more than three earned runs, and his ERA (3.34) and FIP (3.60) are both solid marks. Opposing hitters have a .356 slugging percentage against him, and he has racked up 80 strikeouts so far in 2023.
James Paxton was unable to secure a victory in his most recent start against the Giants, as he settled for a no-decision. The lefty yielded one run on eight hits across five innings, but the Red Sox ultimately fell 3-2.
Over their last five games, the Red Sox are ranked 13th in the league in scoring at 3.2 runs per game. Their season-long scoring average of 5 per contest puts them 8th in baseball. In terms of on-base percentage, Boston is 6th, with an OBP currently sitting at .330. The team’s collective batting average is .263 (4th).
Rafael Devers is the Red Sox’s home-run leader in 2023, boasting 25 long balls and 76 RBIs. His slugging percentage for the season stands at an impressive .513.