The Bobcats and Trojans are set to face off at 6:00 ET on ESPN+. The Trojans will host the game at Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL. The odds for this Sun Belt conference game currently have Troy as the -5.5 point favorite with the over/under line sitting at 140 points.


The Pick: Troy Trojans -5.5

This game will be played at Pensacola Bay Center at 6:00 ET on Saturday, March 9th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-69 in favor of the Trojans.
  • Not only will Troy pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 140 points, and we like the over with a projected 146 points.

Will the Bobcats Secure A Victory as Road Underdogs?

As the underdog, Texas State is 5-14 this season, and they are 16-17 overall. They are coming off a 75-59 win over Southern Miss, and they have won three straight games. On the road, the Bobcats have gone 6-11, and their average scoring margin is -6.6.

For the season, Texas State has gone 7-11 in Sun Belt play, and they have gone 9-6 in non-conference games. They have gone 2-1 in their last three road games, and their record over their last 10 road games is 3-7.

As the underdog this season, Texas State has gone 7-12 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 8-9 this year and they’ve gone 2-1 vs. the spread in their last 3 road games. Over their last 10 road games, the Bobcats are 4-6 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 140 is lower than the average over/under line in Texas State’s games this season (137.4). Their over/under record is 11-18 and their games have averaged 135.7 points. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average of 156 points per game.

Texas State is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 75 points vs. Southern Miss. This figure is more than their season average of 69.8 points per game. The team’s top scorer is Jordan Mason, who comes into today’s matchup with an average of 12.8, while Brandon Love also maintains a PPG average of 10.4 leading up to the game.

In terms of defense, Texas State is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 70.3 points per game. Against Southern Miss in their most recent game, the Texas State defense gave up a total of 59 points while allowing Southern Miss to hit 40% of their shots.

Do the Trojans Have What it Takes to Win as Home Favorites?

Coming into today’s game, Troy has won two straight games, including their most recent victory over Louisiana-Lafayette by a score of 87-73. The Trojans have been dominant at home this season, going 12-2, and they have won four of their last five games at home.

Overall, Troy has a record of 20-11, including a mark of 13-4 in Sun Belt Conference action. Today, they are favored by 5.5 points, and they have gone 15-3 this season when they are the favorites.

As the favorite this season, Troy has gone 13-5 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Trojans have a mark of 6-4. At home, Troy is 11-3 vs. the spread this year and 8-2 in their last 10 games at home. In their last 3 home games, the Trojans have an ATS record of 2-1.

On the season, the over/under record for Troy games is 14-13 and today’s line of 140 is lower than the average OU line in their games (147.1). Over their last three games, the OU record is 3-0 and the average scoring total in those games is 160 points.

Coming off a good offensive performance, Troy’s offense scored 87 points against Louisiana-Lafayette. Their field goal percentage for the game was 38.5%, and they went 38/42 from the free-throw line. Offensively, the Trojans have a season long field goal percentage of 43%, which is 263rd in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 175th in percentage and 69th in three-pointers made.

At present, the Trojans’ defense is nationally ranked 132nd, allowing 70.5 points per game. In their previous game vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, the Ragin’ Cajuns finished with a field goal percentage of 46% and a total of 73 points vs. Troy.