2018-19 RSM Classic Golf Betting Odds & Picks

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Golf will take a good, long break for the most part from Sunday until 2019. This week’s RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort in Georgia is the last points event of the year. Golf won’t fully go away, as the big match between Tiger and Phil in Las Vegas and the Hero World Challenge are coming up, as well as the tournaments over in Europe, but we’ll probably shut it down until January.

Most players will shut it down until January as well. A lot of them already have, as you’ll see with the odds for this week’s event. St. Simons Island is home to about dozen players. Most of them are on-hand, but being a local hasn’t really helped bring home the title in the past.

Only one of the top 30 from last season’s FedEx Cup playoff championship at East Lake is on hand. This is probably the absolute weakest field that we will see for a full points event the rest of the season. It isn’t a huge surprise, as a lot of players have been playing a ton, including the Ryder Cup and other European Tour events.

Formerly known as the McGladrey Classic, this is one of the younger events on the PGA Tour. It started in 2010 and is played on the Seaside Course and the Plantation Course. Because this field is so big, half of the players play the Plantation Course on Thursday and the other half on Friday. The Seaside Course will host all of the holes after the cut is made on Friday night. There is also a cut after 54 holes.

Before RSM got the naming rights, the top winning score was only 16-under, but we’ve eclipsed 20-under in two of the last three years. The one year that we didn’t, Mackenzie Hughes survived a five-person playoff to win at 17-under. The two years we had 20-unders, Kevin Kisner won by six shots and Austin Cook won by four shots.

As with any waterside course, there are some really soft spots on this track, especially in the marshy areas. There are creeks and dunes and very high, very unplayable areas of deep rough on the really errant shots or mis-hits. A lot of holes have water near the greens and other holes that don’t have visible water have muddy and mucky rough. It’s not a fun course if you can’t stay in the short grass.

The favorite this week per 5Dimes Sportsbook is Webb Simpson at +900. Simpson is the highest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking in the field, as he is 20th. He’s only played one event so far and finished 15th at the Shriners Open at TPC Summerlin. He withdrew last year after opening 67-68. He was 36th back in 2017. He certainly finished strong in the FedEx Cup playoffs last year, and shot four rounds better than par in Vegas, but it’s tough to take him this week with such a short price.

Cameron Champ is +2000 and that price should be going down throughout the week. Champ was in the top 10 last week at Mayakoba and has plenty of experience with this course. The SEC Tournament has been played at Sea Island and Champ was in that during his time at Texas A&M. The 23-year-old won the Sanderson Farms and had a low round of 62 last week at Mayakoba. He’s been really consistent so far and in this weaker field at a course that he knows well, it may be warranted to take a short price. He’s in great form and has to feel confident coming in here.

CT Pan, Chesson Hadley, and JJ Spaun are all +2200 this week. Pan was 13th here last year and finished just outside the top 15 last week at the OHL Classic, so he’s in pretty decent form overall. Pan was sixth here two years ago. He may not be ready to win yet, especially with a price this low.

Spaun, who nearly ran down Matt Kuchar last week, has three straight top-15 finishes. He was the runner-up in this event last year, although that was a distant runner-up four shots behind Cook. Spaun opened 68-65 in 2017, but then fell apart over the weekend with a 73-71 finish. The LA native ranks 12th in strokes gained on approach, which is a big deal at this course because of all the greenside hazards. His stat profile isn’t terribly impressive outside of that, so there probably isn’t enough value this week, but keep him in mind to make a push up the board if he starts slow.

Russell Henley is a solid look at +3300. Henley didn’t play this event last year, but he was 10th in 2016, sixth in 2015, and fourth in 2014. Had he played last year and popped another good finish, he’d have probably been in the +2500 or so range. Instead, we get a few extra dollars on his price tag this week. The Georgia native has not been in good form thus far, but this is a course where he does excel.

Zach Johnson has to be on your radar this week at +4000. Johnson settled down in this area and in fact has a sponsorship from RSM, which will give you some kind of idea how tied to this area he is. He missed the cut last week at Mayakoba, but it was his first event of the season. He tied for eighth here last year after missing the 36-hole cut in 2017 and the 54-hole cut in 2016.

The value appears to be back on Sam Ryder this week at +5000. Ryder was third at the Shriners Open and then finished outside the top 50 at Mayakoba. He didn’t play bad at 7-under, but he was never really a threat with an opening-round 69. Ryder is playing exceptionally well on approach and ranks third in strokes gained overall. Hitting fairways has been a bit of a problem, so he’ll need to fix that this week, but if he can, he’ll be right there.

Brian Harman may not be in the best form, but Harman was one of the co-favorites last year with Kevin Kisner and Matt Kuchar. He’s +6000 this year. There is some inherent value in that, even if his game isn’t in great shape.

Patton Kizzire is well down the board at +9000. He’s the only guy in this event that was in the FedEx Cup championship at East Lake. He’s also a St. Simons Island resident. He opened 65-66 last week before completely falling apart over the weekend, but he should feel plenty comfortable here this week.

Coverage of the 2018 RSM Classic will be on Golf Channel.

Here are the odds as of November 12, 4 p.m. ET:

Webb Simpson +900

Cameron Champ +2000

C.T. Pan +2200

Chesson Hadley +2200

J.J. Spaun +2200

Lucas Glover +2800

Joaquin Niemann +3300

Austin Cook +3300

Russell Henley +3300

Luke List +3500

Kevin Kisner +3500

Charles Howell III +4000

Zach Johnson +4000

Jim Furyk +4500

Harold Varner III +4500

Chris Kirk +4500

Sam Ryder +5000

Whee Kim +5000

Denny McCarthy +5500

Bud Cauley +5500

Jamie Lovemark +5500

Brian Harman +6000

Bill Haas +6000

Peter Uihlein +6000

Stewart Cink +6000

Sungjae Im +6000

Richy Werenski +6600

Michael Thompson +6600

Keith Mitchell +7000

Patrick Rodgers +7500

Ben Silverman +7500

Bronson Burgoon +8000

Nick Watney +8000

Ryan Armour +8000

Brian Gay +8000

Aaron Baddeley +8000

Brice Garnett +8000

Nicholas Lindheim +8000

Johnson Wagner +9000

Graeme McDowell +9000

Adam Schenk +9000

Padraig Harrington +9000

Patton Kizzire +9000

Sam Burns +9000

Kevin Streelman +9000

Anders Albertson +9000

Andrew Landry +10000

Kramer Hickok +10000

Jason Dufner +10000

Hudson Swafford +10000

Nate Lashley +10000

Ted Potter, Jr. +10000

Ben Martin +11000

Robert Streb +11000

David Hearn +11000

Roberto Castro +11000

J.T. Poston +12500

Corey Conners +12500

Ben Crane +12500

Ollie Schniederjans +12500

Talor Gooch +12500

Scott Stallings +12500

Joel Dahmen +12500

Kelly Kraft +12500

Harris English +12500

Brandon Harkins +12500

Troy Merritt +12500

Vaughn Taylor +12500

Seth Reeves +14000

Matt Every +14000

Chad Campbell +15000

Peter Malnati +15000

Matt Jones +15000

Robert Garrigus +15000

Shawn Stefani +15000

Sung Kang +15000

Mackenzie Hughes +15000

Stephan Jaeger +15000

Trey Mullinax +15000

Tyrone Van Aswegen +16000

Cameron Tringale +16000

Chase Wright +17500

Alex Cejka +17500

Davis Love III +17500

Tom Hoge +17500

Tom Lovelady +17500

Ryan Blaum +17500

Wes Roach +17500

Hunter Mahan +20000

Jonathan Byrd +20000

Fabian Gomez +20000

Sean O’Hair +20000

Michael Kim +20000

Sangmoon Bae +20000

David Lingmerth +20000

Curtis Luck +20000

Carlos Ortiz +20000

Scott Brown +22500

Seamus Power +22500

Sebastian Munoz +22500

Alex Prugh +22500

Sam Saunders +22500

Retief Goosen +22500

Wyndham Clark +22500

Sepp Straka +25000

Ricky Barnes +25000

Scott Langley +25000

Brian Stuard +25000

Derek Fathauer +25000

Chris Stroud +25000

John Huh +25000

Jonas Blixt +25000

Tyler Duncan +27500

Kyoung-Hoon Lee +27500

Dominic Bozzelli +27500

Jim Knous +27500

Ernie Els +30000

D.A. Points +30000

Josh Teater +30000

J.J. Henry +30000

Jim Herman +30000

Adam Svensson +30000

Roger Sloan +30000

Julian Etulain +30000

Jose de Jesus Rodriguez +30000

Wesley Bryan +32500

Jon Curran +40000

Cody Gribble +40000

Freddie Jacobson +50000

Martin Trainer +50000

Max Homa +50000

John Chin +50000

Kyle Jones +50000

Tommy Gainey +50000

Chris Thompson +50000

Garrett Barber +50000

Martin Piller +50000

Adam Long +55000

Brady Schnell +60000

Will MacKenzie +60000

Dru Love +75000

Chad Collins +75000

Joey Garber +75000

Hank Lebioda +75000

Peter Jones +75000

Ben Griffin +100000

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