The MLB betting action continues Thursday, June 23, 2022, with ten games around the leagues, so we’re taking a closer look at the National League showdown from Petco Park in San Diego to get you the best Phillies vs. Padres betting pick and odds.
The Phillies and Padres open a four-game series, and San Diego is a -150 home fave on BetDSI Sportsbook. Philadelphia is listed as a +130 moneyline dog with a total of 7.0 runs. These two foes meet for the second time in 2022, and the Padres beat the Phillies in a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia in May, 2-1.
The Phillies look to get back on the winning track
The Philadelphia Phillies trailed the Texas Rangers 4-2 in the bottom of the seventh inning. It was the closing battle of a two-game interleague series in Arlington, Texas, and the Phillies were trying to avoid their third consecutive defeat.
After winning 15 of their first 17 games in June, the Phillies have suffered a couple of losses on the road against the Washington Nationals 9-3 and Texas Rangers 7-0. They were sitting at the third spot in the NL West with a 36-33 record, three games behind the Atlanta Braves and eight behind the New York Mets.
Ranger Suarez will take the mound Thursday in San Diego. The 26-year-old left-hander is 5-4 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 13 starts (65 innings) this season. He’s gone 1-1 through his first three starts in June, allowing nine runs (seven earned) on 16 hits and seven walks across 17 innings of work.
The Padres search for their fourth win in a row
The San Diego Padres trounced the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-4 on Wednesday to sweep a three-game home series and bounce back from three consecutive defeats at the Colorado Rockies. They improved to 44-27 on the season, topping the NL West ahead of the LA Dodgers.
Manny Machado has missed the Diamondbacks series due to an ankle injury and is doubtful to play in the Phillies series. Machado has been the Padres’ best player so far this season, slashing a majestic .328/.400/.545 with 12 home runs and 46 RBIs across 253 at-bats.
Joe Musgrove will toe the slab Thursday and return from a short stint on the COVID-19 list. The 29-year-old righty is enjoying a wonderful season. He’s 8-0 with a shiny 1.59 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 0.92 WHIP, and 81/17 K/BB ratio across 79 innings of work in 2022. Musgrove ranks in the 98th percentile in fastball spin and the 92nd percentile in xwOBA.
- 2-4 in Ranger Suarez’s last six starts
- 7-3 in the last ten games overall
- 7-2 in the last nine games at home
- 11-1 in Joe Musgrove’s 12 starts in 2022
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Pick
Manny Machado’s absence is a huge blow for the Padres, but I’m expecting San Diego to hit well against Ranger Suarez, who’s allowed 16 runs on 27 hits and 14 walks in his last five starts and 25.2 innings of work. If Joe Musgrove continues to dominate, the Padres will prevail over the Phillies.
Philadelphia is more dangerous when batting the lefties. The Phillies have a 117 OPS+ against the left-handed pitchers and 104 OPS+ versus the right-handed pitchers. Their offense has slowed down in the last seven days, slashing only .213/.307/.344.
Pick: Take San Diego Padres at -150
It’s hard to trust Ranger Suarez in this matchup. He’s struggling with control, and the Padres have been dangerous when hitting the lefties so far this season. Also, San Diego is slashing .282/.372/.528 in the last seven days of action.
Over the last ten days, the Padres’ bullpen has recorded a 2.67 ERA and 3.42 FIP across 33.2 innings, while the Phillies’ bullpen has registered a horrible 7.34 ERA and 6.13 FIP through 30.2 frames. The line has been set pretty low in this matchup, so I lean toward the over.
Pick: Go over 7.0 runs at -120