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2021 PGA Tour Farmers Insurance Open Picks and Odds

The Farmers Insurance Open is a tremendous test for the PGA Tour players. Both courses at Torrey Pines are a challenge, but the South Course is one of the toughest on the calendar for the players. This course is feisty enough to host a major and, oddly enough, it will with the 2021 US Open in San Diego for the first time since 2008.

We’ll be able to talk more about that major down the line, but the Farmers Insurance Open is the event in the spotlight for now. As the premier event of the early-season “west coast swing”, the field is actually a little bit disappointing because the European Tour event in Dubai has taken some players out of the equation.

We’ll take a look at the odds from MyBookie Sportsbook this week to handicap the event. We’ll post the full list after the body of the article, but we’ll refer to the odds as we name the players that should be under consideration over the course of the preview.

The Field

This field is terrific, even though the Omega Dubai Desert Classic is also happening this weekend. That event took away Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey, Sergio Garcia, and Justin Rose, among others. It is a little bit surprising that some of those players would opt to be in Dubai instead of at the site of the 2021 US Open.

Rather than focus on who isn’t here, let’s focus on who is. Jon Rahm is back after bowing out of The American Express last week. He is the favorite at the top of the odds board here alongside Rory McIlroy, as they are listed in front of guys like Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Harris English, and Jason Day. Jordan Spieth will also hit the course for the first time this year. Brooks Koepka is also back in the field this week after a MC at PGA West last week.

Seven-time winner Tiger Woods is out indefinitely after undergoing another back surgery.

Course Profile

We have two courses again this week. The Torrey Pines South Course is a behemoth. It measures well over 7,700 yards with some huge par 4s and long par 5s. Players that make the cut will play 54 of their 72 holes on the South Course. The shorter North Course that comes in around 7,250 yards will be used on Thursday and Friday. Players will play one of their first 18s there and one on the South Course before moving exclusively to the South Course for the weekend.

Scoring has been better the last two years, with Marc Leishman in at 15-under last year and Justin Rose in at 21-under in 2019. Prior to that, the winning scores were -10, -13, -6, -9, and -9 the previous five years.

Between new equipment and players that hit the ball farther than ever before, it will be interesting to see how the scores go at Torrey Pines moving forward. We know that more and more players can shorten courses like these. It will make the US Open even more interesting this year, that’s for sure.

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Yay or Neigh?

Our Horse for Course section sheds some light on the guys that have played well here in the past. There are a lot of guys that have a lot of history here. We’ll look back to 2010 in terms of the player histories for this event.

Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker are two-time winners here. Day is playing for the first time in over two months. Snedeker has missed both cuts in 2021. Snedeker won in 2016 and 2012. Day won in 2018 and 2015. Day also has three other top-10 finishes since 2013. Sneds has five others since 2010, including a third last year after two years outside the top 10.

Rahm won here in 2017 and has finished second and fifth the last two years. He was seventh at the Tournament of Champions before skipping the last two weeks. McIlroy has back-to-back top-five finishes. He came in third last year.

Reigning champ Marc Leishman has four other career top-five finishes here, including two runner-up results. He played really well two weeks ago finishing fourth at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Tony Finau has four straight top-15 finishes here and another top-20 in 2016. He hasn’t finished outside the top 25 in this event, but after another rough Sunday last weekend, he is a tough bet t make.

There really are a lot of players with some good results here. JB Holmes had a run of three top-six finishes from 2015-18. Charles Howell III has five top-10 finishes since 2010. Patrick Reed was sixth last year for his best finish. Patrick Rodgers has two top-10 finishes in the last five years around three missed cuts. Bubba Watson won here in 2011. He returned for the first time in five years to finish sixth last year.

Gary Woodland has five top-20 finishes in the last seven years. Billy Horschel, who is in pretty good form, has a couple of eighth-place finishes. He’s made each of the last five cuts.

Handicap & Picks

Tons of guys with some great course form in their careers. Recent form is harder to come by. Si Woo Kim won last week and was 25th two years ago. Cameron Davis had a top-five finish last week along with Finau, Doug Ghim, and McIlroy.

One player that is really interesting this week is Xander Schauffele. He played really well in the Tournament of Champions, but he has not played well here back at home. The San Diego State product has missed four of five cuts in this event. He’s got a short price because of his name and how well he has played over the last couple seasons, but it is tough to back him.

One player I do like this week is Ryan Palmer. Palmer was disappointing at the Sony Open a couple of weeks ago, but played well at Kapalua. He’s also finished in the top 25 all three times here, including a second in 2018. At +5000, he’s not a bad look.

Bubba Watson is coming off of the shelf here, but he was excellent in last year’s tournament. He led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. He putted pretty well, too, but not nearly as well as tournament winner Marc Leishman. Watson is risky with the long layoff, but he returned to this event last year for a reason and played really well. He’s +4000.

Look for guys like JB Holmes and Corey Conners in some matchups, group matchups, and maybe some top-20 or top-10 props. Both guys hit the ball a long way. Holmes has had some success here with four top-20 finishes in the last six starts at Torrey Pines.

Conners also could be shaking off some rust, but he’s a big-time hitter that had two top-10 finishes towards the end of 2020. He only has one start here, but the big ball striking is a bonus.

If you want to play for the lottery ticket, Holmes is +17500 and Conners is +5000.

Coverage of the Farmers Insurance Open will be on Golf Channel and CBS throughout the week.

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BETTING ODDS FOR THE 2021 FARMERS INSURANCE OPEN

Jon Rahm +700
Rory McIlroy +800
Xander Schauffele +1400
Tony Finau +1800
Harris English +2500
Patrick Reed +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Viktor Hovland +2800
Brooks Koepka +3000
Matthew Wolff +3300
Scottie Scheffler +3300
Marc Leishman +3300
Bubba Watson +4000
Si Woo Kim +4000
Adam Scott +4500
Jason Day +4500
Billy Horschel +4500
Ryan Palmer +5000
Cameron Smith +5500
Corey Conners +5500
Cameron Champ +5500
Will Zalatoris +6000
Louis Oosthuizen +6000
Cameron Davis +6000
Rickie Fowler +6000
Jason Kokrak +6600
Francesco Molinari +7000
Gary Woodland +7500
Charles Howell III +7500
Sam Burns +8000
Jordan Spieth +9000
Emiliano Grillo +9000
Talor Gooch +9000
Dylan Frittelli +9000
Lanto Griffin +9000
Carlos Ortiz +10000
Adam Hadwin +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Charley Hoffman +11000
Ryan Moore +11000
Russell Knox +11000
Max Homa +12500
Maverick McNealy +12500
Phil Mickelson +12500
Byeong Hun An +12500
Mackenzie Hughes +12500
Erik Van Rooyen +12500
Joel Dahmen +12500
Sepp Straka +12500
Doc Redman +12500
Brandt Snedeker +12500
John Huh +12500
James Hahn +14000
Tom Hoge +14000
Matt Jones +14000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Lucas Glover +15000
Henrik Norlander +15000
Cameron Tringale +15000
Harold Varner III +15000
Doug Ghim +16000
Kevin Streelman +16000
J T Poston +16000
Tom Lewis +16000
J B Holmes +17500
Kramer Hickok +17500
Peter Malnati +17500
Patrick Rodgers +17500
Wyndham Clark +17500
Justin Suh +17500
Keith Mitchell +17500
Luke List +20000
Harry Higgs +20000
Martin Laird +20000
Denny Mccarthy +20000
Kyle Stanley +20000
Scott Piercy +20000
Matthew NeSmith +20000
Richy Werenski +22500
Charl Schwartzel +22500
Adam Schenk +25000
Pat Perez +25000
Jhonattan Vegas +25000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Scott Stallings +25000
Bo Hoag +25000
Will Gordon +25000
Robert Streb +25000
Andy Ogletree +27500
Brian Stuard +27500
Chesson Hadley +27500
Kristoffer Ventura +30000
Mark Hubbard +30000
Robby Shelton +30000
Camilo Villegas +30000
Roger Sloan +30000
Aaron Baddeley +30000
Chase Seiffert +30000
Bronson Burgoon +35000
Tyler McCumber +35000
Anirban Lahiri +35000
Steve Stricker +35000
Tyler Strafaci +35000
Beau Hossler +35000
J J Spaun +35000
Danny Lee +40000
Jimmy Walker +40000
Sung Kang +40000
Jason Dufner +40000
Brandon Hagy +40000
David Hearn +40000
Jamie Lovemark +40000
Nick Watney +40000
Sebastian Cappelen +40000
Kevin Tway +40000
Troy Merritt +50000
Seung-Yul Noh +50000
Vincent Whaley +50000
Scott Brown +50000
Xinjun Zhang +50000
Rob Oppenheim +50000
Sam Ryder +50000
Hank Lebioda +50000
Grayson Murray +50000
Mark Anderson +50000
Satoshi Kodaira +50000
Cameron Percy +60000
Tim Wilkinson +60000
Rhein Gibson +60000
Ryan Brehm +60000
Michael Gligic +60000
Ted Potter Jr +75000
Kelly Kraft +75000
Scott Harrington +75000
Joseph Bramlett +75000
Chris Baker +75000
Nelson Ledesma +75000
K J Choi +75000
Ben Taylor +100000
Michael Kim +100000
Fabian Gomez +100000
Hunter Mahan +100000
Martin Trainer +150000
Michael Gellerman +150000
Rafael Campos +150000
Kevin Stadler +200000
Kyle Mendoza +200000
John Senden +200000
Kamaiu Johnson +200000

 

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