The Nitto ATP Finals began on November 12, bringing together the top eight players this season to compete for the season title on indoor hard courts in Turin, Italy. The round robin tournament concludes this weekend with the top four players competing in the semifinals and the winners of those matches meeting in the finals on Sunday.

Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Holger Rune, Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, and Daniil Medvedev all qualified for this year’s Nitto ATP Finals. Rune, Sinner, and Alcaraz were playing in the tournament for the first time as direct qualifiers, while Djokovic, Zverev, Tsitsipas, and Medvedev are all past champions.

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Who Has Advanced?

As of Friday, two of the four semifinal spots were secured, although the semifinal matches won’t be decided until the conclusion of the last two round robin matches. Sinner and Djokovic qualified in the Green Group. Tsitsipas was forced to withdraw from the tournament in his second match and was replaced by Hubert Hurkacz, while Rune came up just short in his attempt to reach the semi-final. He needed a win against Sinner on Thursday, but the Italian won 6-2, 5-7, 6-4. 

Still in Contention

The Red Group, meanwhile, is still wide open with two round robin games remaining Friday. Rublev is out of contention after losing each of his first two matches, but any two of Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Zverev can qualify for the semi-finals depending on what happens Friday. 

Alcaraz and Medvedev were slated to play early Friday morning. The winner of that match would automatically earn entry into the semi-finals, although the loser could still qualify if Rublev defeats Zverev later in the day. The only way Zverev qualifies is if he defeats Rublev and Medvedev beats Alcaraz.

Round Robin Results

Sinner finished the round robin with a perfect 3-0 record to win the Green Group, while Djokovic, who will finish the year as the No. 1 ranked player on the ATP Tour for the eighth time in his career, just snuck in with a 2-1 record with each of his games going three sets. 

In the Red Group, Zverev opened the tournament with an upset victory 6-7 (3), 6-3, 6-4 over Alcaraz, but lost in straight sets to Medvedev in his second match. Medvedev is 2-0, with wins over Zverev and Rublev. Alcaraz beat Rublev 7-5, 6-2 in his second match.

Semifinal Scenarios and H2H Results

Medvedev can still win his group even with a loss, so let’s assume for now that he takes the top seed and Alcaraz finishes second. If that were the case, Medvedev would play Djokovic, who he has a 5-10 career record against. Alcaraz or Zverev, in second place, would play Sinner. Surprisingly, Sinner is 4-3 against Alcaraz but just 1-4 against Zverev. 

The favorite, obviously, would be Djokovic, considering he has a winning record against each of the other possible opponents. However, Sinner is playing the best tennis of his career right now, recently winning the Vienna Open in late October, where he beat Medvedev in the final. 

Finals Prediction

With Sinner and Djokovic already through and players in the other group having to play another gruelling match on Friday, there’s good value in betting on a Sinner-Djokovic final. Djokovic is 3-1 against Sinner and you can bet he’s poised and motivated to get his win back after losing to Sinner in the round robin.

Finals Pick: Djokovic def. Sinner

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