The MLB betting action goes on Thursday, May 5, with ten games around the leagues, so we’re taking a closer look at the NL West showdown from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia to get you the best Mets vs. Phillies betting pick and odds.
The Mets and Phillies have already met each other in a couple of three-game series, and New York beat Philadelphia 2-1 on both occasions. They start a four-game set this time around, and the Phillies open as -130 moneyline favorites to win Thursday’s opener. The totals sit at 8.0 runs on BetOnline Sportsbook.
The Mets finally failed to win the series
After winning seven straight series since Opening Day, the Mets split a four-game set against the Atlanta Braves following a heavy loss to the reigning champs in Wednesday’s closer. Tylor Megill fell apart in the fifth inning and yielded three earned runs, while Adam Ottavino allowed three more immediately after relieving Megill.
The Mets fell to 18-9 on the season, still topping the NL East comfortably. They are hitting .253/.321/.333 over the last seven days while posting a 3.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Taijuan Walker will take the hill Thursday in Philadelphia, and he’s yet to allow an earned run in 2022, though the 29-year-old righty spent some time on the injury list.
Walker tossed five scoreless innings in a 4-1 home loss to the Phillies last Saturday. He allowed only a couple of hits and walks but whiffed just one. It was his first outing since the opening week, and Walker finished with 73 pitches (44 strikes).
The Phillies suffered a surprising loss on Tuesday
The Philadelphia Phillies’ Wednesday night clash against the Texas Rangers has been excluded from the analysis. They were closing down a two-game interleague set at Citizens Bank Park, and the Phillies looked to snap their two-game skid.
After a 10-6 defeat at the Mets last Sunday, Philadelphia lost to the Rangers 6-4 on Tuesday and fell to 11-13 on the season. It was another poor performance from the Phillies, who scored just one run through six innings against the Rangers’ bullpen. Over their previous five outings, the Phillies have recorded a poor .187/.274/.374 slash line.
Aaron Nola will toe the rubber Thursday, and he’s 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five starts this season. The 28-year-righty met the Mets twice in 2022 and took a loss on both occasions. Through 9.1 frames of work against the Metsies, Nola has allowed six earned runs on ten hits and three walks. Last Friday, he fanned nine across six innings but also yielded three earned runs on seven hits in a 3-0 defeat at the Mets.
- 6-2 in the last eight games on the road
- 1-4 in the last five games against the Mets
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
Some of the current Mets are hitting very well against Aaron Nola. Pete Alonso is 12-for-34 with four home runs. Starling Marte is 5-for-15, Jeff McNeil is 9-for-32 with a homer, while Brandon Nimmo has 11 hits and 11 walks in 44 plate appearances against Nola. On the other side, the current Phillies have recorded a healthy .280/.321/.506 triple slash in 127 at-bats against Taijuan Walker. Kyle Schwarber has five dingers in 14 plate appearances against him.
Hereof, it’s fair to say that Thursday’s clash between the Mets and Phillies could easily go either way. Walker hasn’t allowed a single run to the Phillies in 2022, but that could easily change, as they meet each other for the third time this season. Both bullpens have done a good job over the last ten days, so I lean the visitors only because of their defense.
Pick: Take New York Mets at +120
The Phillies’ bullpen has registered a shiny 2.51 ERA and 2.48 FIP over the last ten days. On the other side, the Mets’ relievers have posted a 3.64 ERA and 3.21 FIP in that span. The under is 3-2-1 in the previous six meetings between New York and Phila in 2022, but three of those six contests have produced nine or more runs in the total.
Last Sunday, the Mets and Phillies combined for 16 runs at Citi Field, while their last date at Citizens Bank Park saw 15 runs on the scoreboard. I’m looking for both starting pitchers to allow a few runs, but the totals are a tricky wager because of the bullpens.
Pick: Go over 8.0 runs at -115