Planning on watching today’s Bulldogs and Wildcats game? Catch the action at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY, as the Wildcats hosts this showdown at 7:00 ET on ESPN2. The over/under for this Southeastern conference contest is set at 154 points, with the Wildcats being the favored team playing at home against the Bulldogs.


The Pick: Kentucky Wildcats -6.5

This game will be played at Rupp Arena at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, January 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-68 in favor of the Wildcats.
  • Not only will Kentucky pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -6.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 154 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Taking a Look at the Bulldogs Chances in Lexington

Mississippi State heads into tonight’s game as a 6.5-point underdog, and they have gone 1-2 in Southeastern Conference play so far this season. The Bulldogs are 12-4 overall, including an 11-2 non-conference mark, and they are coming off an 82-74 loss to Alabama.

On the road this season, Mississippi State has gone 4-2, and they have an average scoring margin of +9.3. So far, they have been the underdog in just one game this season, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 road games.

As the underdog this season, Mississippi State has an ATS record of 1-0 and they are 9-7 overall vs. the spread this year. On the road, the Bulldogs have gone 4-2 vs. the spread this season and they are 5-5 at home. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Mississippi State has a mark of 6-4 vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for Mississippi State games is 7-8-1. The average point total in their games this year is 140.1 points, which is 2.9 points lower than the average over/under line of 137.2. So far, 13 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s over/under line of 154. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total is 145 points.

The Mississippi State offense is coming off a game where they scored 74 points against Alabama. They posted a field goal percentage of 42.6% and connected on 7 threes. In terms of offense, the Bulldogs have a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, putting them 177th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 310th in percentage and 195th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Mississippi State defense is giving up an average of 64.8 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Kentucky, the Mississippi State defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Mississippi State made 15 free-throws vs. the Bulldogs.

Do the Wildcats Have What it Takes at Home?

Coming off a tough 97-92 loss to Texas A&M, Kentucky is 12-3 on the season, including a 2-1 record in Southeastern Conference play. The Wildcats are 9-2 at home this season, and they have won their last three games at home. On the year, Kentucky has been favored in 11 of its 15 games, going 10-1 in those contests.

So far, Kentucky has a scoring differential of +17.4 points per game at home, compared to +7.8 points per game on the road. For the season, the Wildcats have gone 10-2 in non-conference games, compared to 3-1 on the road.

As the favorite this season, Kentucky has gone 7-4 vs. the spread. Their ATS record at home is 7-4, and over their last three home games, they are 3-0 vs. the spread. In their last 10 games as the favorite, the Wildcats have a mark of 6-4 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 154 is lower than the average over/under line in Kentucky’s games this season (154.2). This year, 11 of their 15 games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total is 175 points.

Kentucky’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 92 points against Texas A&M. They had an overall field goal percentage of 42.1% and made 13/21 free throws. Currently leading the team in scoring is Antonio Reeves who comes into today’s matchup averaging 18.9. Rob Dillingham also heads into the game with a PPG average of 14.4.

So far, the Wildcats’ defense is ranked 237th in the country at 76.0 points per contest. Kentucky will look once again to perform well on defense, holding Texas A&M to just 40% shooting in their most recent game.