In this NL East matchup, the Phillies (77-63, 41-27 home) play host to the Marlins (73-68, 33-36 away) at Citizens Bank Park. Taking the mound for the Phillies is Aaron Nola, while the Marlins will go with Johnny Cueto. Check out my pick for two of this Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins matchup.
MIAMI MARLINS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Miami Marlins +163
This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 6:05 ET on Saturday, September 9th.
WHY BET THE MIAMI MARLINS:
- Over their last ten games on the road, Miami has a straight-up record of 6-4.
- In their last five games as the underdog, the Marlins have put together a record of 3-2.
- Aaron Nola has struggled of late, coming in with an ERA of 6.75 over his last two starts.
MIAMI MARLINS HAVE STRUGGLED AGAINST THE NL EAST
Currently, the Marlins are 3rd in the NL East on an overall record of 73-68. Their season-long runline record is 65-76, which includes going 35-34 vs. the runline on the road. For the season, Miami has won less than half of their series away from home (8-12). The Marlins’ over/under record this season comes in at 65-73.
Today marks Johnny Cueto’s ninth outing of the 2023 season, and his record thus far stands at 1-3. His ERA is 5.54, with an OBP allowed of .298, and he has struck out 30 batters with a WHIP of 1.15. On the road, Cueto’s ERA is 3.60 compared to 11.25 when pitching at home.
In his most recent start, Johnny Cueto allowed three runs on five hits to the Nationals. Nevertheless, the Marlins emerged victorious with a final score of 11-5, granting Cueto the win.
The Marlins have been one of the top power lineups in the league of late, having hit 10 home runs over their last five games. Compared to other clubs, this is 4th best in that span. For the season, they are ranked 19th in home runs and 16th in slugging percentage. Overall, Miami is averaging 4.1 runs per game (24th).
Luis Arraez has been a consistent force for the Miami Marlins this season, boasting a .350 batting average and .451 slugging percentage. Over the last ten games, Arraez has been particularly impressive, leading the team in hits and batting .337.
WILL THE PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?
Heading into this divisional matchup vs. the Marlins, the Phillies have an overall record of 77-63. This mark includes going 16-20 against divisional foes. Currently, they are 2nd in the NL East. Philadelphia’s overall series record sits at 25-16-3.
Today marks Aaron Nola’s 29th outing of the season, with a 12-9 record to show for it. His ERA is 4.55 and he has conceded a .276 OBP. He has struck out 179 batters and his WHIP stands at 1.15. On the road, Nola’s ERA is 6.20 compared to 3.30 in home games.
The Phillies were unable to come away with the win in Aaron Nola’s most recent start, as Milwaukee emerged victorious by a score of 7-5. The right-hander was charged with seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work, surrendering eight hits in the process.
So far this season, the Phillies’ has gone deep 185 times, placing them 10th in the league. Over Philadelphia’s previous five games, they are 18th in runs scored, with their season average of 4.9 runs per game putting them 9th in the league. The Phillies’ overall team batting average stands at .259 along with an OBP of .329.
The Phillies have seen Kyle Schwarber’s power on full display in their last five games, as he has hit two home runs. This season, the slugger has tallied an impressive 41 long balls and is batting .195.