Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick 09/27/19

Starlin Castro and the Miami Marlins will head north to play their NL East rival Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. NBC Sports Philadelphia will be showing the matchup and the first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Philadelphia (-180) as the favorite over Miami (+170). If you think the game’s total will go under 9 runs, bookmakers are currently offering -105 odds. Picking the over will return -115 odds. This game currently has a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-130) and Phillies -1.5 (+110).

The Phillies are 79-80 straight up (SU) and 75-83 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.3 units ATS. The Marlins are 56-103 SU and have gone 81-77 ATS. They’re down 16.9 units for moneyline bettors and 7.0 units ATS.

Phillies games have a 74-79-5 over/under record in 2019. Miami has been a decent over bet with a total record of 76-70-12.

Pablo Lopez will get the nod for Miami. The right-handed Lopez is 5-8 with a 4.96 ERA and 92 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with four strikeouts and a 6.35 ERA against Philadelphia this year.

The Phillies are going with righty Vince Velasquez (7-8, 4.76 ERA), who’s got 127 strikeouts and 43 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.38. Velasquez is 0-1 with 17 strikeouts and a 6.62 ERA across four starts against Miami this year.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.60, a WHIP of 1.37 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.4. The bullpen has a 4.52 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 73 games against divisional foes, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.81 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.34.

The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 5.1 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .195/.238/.346 over its last five contests and is 0-5 SU during that span.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led the Phillies’ offense this year. Hernandez is hitting .280/.334/.404 with 13 home runs, 70 RBIs and 73 runs scored, while Segura’s line is .280/.323/.420 with 12 homers, 60 RBIs and 79 runs.

In the other dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.56 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.22 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.10, along with a WHIP of 1.28.

Marlins hitters have slashed .240/.300/.374 on their way to 3.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Starlin Castro and first baseman Miguel Rojas have paced Miami’s offense. Castro is hitting .267/.296/.429 with 21 home runs, 83 RBIs and 66 runs scored. Rojas (.279/.327/.376) is up to five homers, 46 RBIs and 49 runs scored.

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – UNDER