The Heat and Celtics tip off their first-round series at 1:00 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston. ABC is carrying the game on TV, and the Celtics are the heavy favorites in game one, as they are favored by 14 points. The over/under line is sitting at 209 points, and the money line odds are -1122 for the Celtics and +697 for the Heat.

MIAMI HEAT VS BOSTON CELTICS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Heat +14

This game will be played at TD Garden at 1:00 ET on Sunday, April 21st.

WHY BET THE MIAMI HEAT:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 114-110 in favor of the Celtics.
  • Our projections have Jayson Tatum finishing with Jayson Tatum points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Celtics finishing with a field goal percentage of 48.6% and knocking down 19 threes.

Will the Miami Defense Show Up on the Road?

Miami is 11-23 as the underdog this season and has failed to cover the spread in their last three games as the underdog. However, they have covered the spread in their last five road games and have an ATS record of 24-14 on the road.

On average, the Heat’s games have finished with 218.5 points this season, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 209. In their last two games, the over has hit.

In their last game, Miami defeated the Raptors by a score of 118-103. They were favored by 16.5 points in that game and are 35-13 as the favorite this season. The win improved their overall record to 46-36, which is 8th in the Eastern Conference.

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 35-47. This year, 75 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 209.

Miami comes into the game as the 26th ranked scoring offense, at 110.1 points per game. Their scoring production is even worse on the road, at 108.1 points per contest. The Heat are also near the bottom of the league in pace, averaging 95.8 possessions per game.

Jimmy Butler has averaged 18.6 points per game over his last five games, while hitting 55.6% of his shots from the field. Across his last five games, Tyler Herro is averaging 21.8 points per game. In these games, he hit 46.6% of his shots from the field and 2.8 threes per contest.

On average, the Miami defense is giving up 108.4 points per game (4th). Right now, they are on a 2 game streak of giving up fewer points than their season average. For the season, Miami is ranked 27th in fewest fouls per game. Team’s are averaging 19.2 free-throws per game vs. the Heat and have an overall field goal percentage of 46.9%.

Do the Celtics Have a Shot at a Home Win?

Today, the Celtics are favored by 14 points at home against the Heat. This season, Boston has been favored in 78 of their 82 games and has gone 62-16 as the favorite. As the favorite, they have won their last two games against the spread and have an ATS record of 39-35.

In their most recent game, the Celtics defeated the Wizards by a score of 132-122. The O/U line for that game was 228.5, and the teams combined for 254 points. Boston was favored by 10 points in that game, resulting in a push against the spread.

This season, the Celtics have an O/U record of 43-38-1, and the over has hit in their last three games. On average, their games have seen a combined scoring total of 229.8 points, which is higher than today’s line of 209.

Overall, the Celtics finished the regular season with a record of 64-18, which is the best in the Eastern Conference. Against the East, they went 41-11 and 23-7 against non-conference opponents.

Boston is 41-37 against the spread this season, including a 22-17 mark at home. Currently, they have won two straight games straight up and are 2-2 vs. the spread as the underdog.

Boston comes into the game as the NBA’s top three-point shooting team, hitting 38% of their looks from downtown this season. They are also the league leaders in three-pointers made per game, at 16.5. Overall, they are 8th in field goal percentage, at 48%. This season, the Celtics are averaging 120.6 points per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league.

Payton Pritchard has been hot of late for the Celtics, averaging 22.2 points per game over his last five games. In these games, he hit 60.3% of his shots from the field. Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.9 points per game this season to go along with 8.1 rebounds. Sam Hauser has hit 3 threes per game in his last five games and is averaging 13 points per game for the year. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds for the Mavericks.

This season, the Celtics defense has been impressive, holding the 6th position in the league while permitting an average of 109.2 points per contest. Inside the arc, the Celtics defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 52.0% and 34.9% from three-point territory.