Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Bears and Bulldogs. The game is starting at 12:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Bulldogs at Harrah’s Cherokee Center in Asheville, NC. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 153.5 points, and Samford is favored by -7 to win at home against Mercer.


The Pick: Mercer Bears +7

This game will be played at Harrah’s Cherokee Center at 12:00 ET on Saturday, March 9th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Bulldogs.
  • Even though we have Samford winning straight-up, we like Mercer at +7.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 153.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Can the Bears Pull the Upset on the Road?

After picking up a win in their last game, the Mercer Bears will look to keep their momentum going as they hit the road to take on the Samford Bulldogs. So far this season, Mercer has a record of 16-16.

As the underdog, the Bears have gone 7-11 this season. They are 5-10 on the road, and their average scoring margin on the road is -6.0 points per game. Over their last 10 games away from home, Mercer has gone 3-7.

As the underdog this season, Mercer has gone 10-8 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 6-8-1. Over their last three road games, the Bears are just 1-2 vs. the spread, and their ATS record as the underdog over their last 10 games is 6-4.

This season, the over/under record for Mercer games is 17-10-2 and today’s line of 153.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (140.3). However, their last three games have had an average scoring total of 158 points and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 7-2-1.

The Mercer offense is coming off a game where they scored 84 points against Citadel. They posted a field goal percentage of 56.6% and connected on 8 threes. Currently leading the team in scoring is Jalyn McCreary who comes into today’s matchup averaging 15.7. David Thomas also heads into the game with a PPG average of 10.9.

Mercer’s defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 71.9 points per game. Against Citadel in their most recent game, the Mercer defense gave up a total of 76 points while allowing Citadel to hit 56% of their shots.

Will Samford Find a Way to Win at Home?

Samford is a perfect 15-0 at home this season, and they have won their last 15 games at home. For the year, they are 20-2 when favored, and they are favored by seven points today. Their average scoring margin at home is +16.0, and they have gone 10-0 in their last 10 home games. So far, they are 26-5 overall, and they have gone 15-3 in Southern Conference play.

Samford has gone 8-5 on the road this season, and they have lost their last two road games. So far, they have gone 11-2 in non-conference action. Their average scoring margin on the road is +2.6. They are coming off a 92-80 win over Citadel, and they are 3-0 in their last three home games.

At home this season, Samford has an ATS record of 9-6. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bulldogs are just 3-7 vs. the spread. In their last 3 home games, Samford has an ATS mark of 1-2.

This season, the over/under record for Samford games is 13-15 and today’s line of 153.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games (155.6). In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total in those games is 162 points.

The Samford offense is coming off a game where they scored 92 points against Citadel. They posted a field goal percentage of 51.9% and connected on 11 threes. Achor Achor is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 15.2 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, A.J. Staton Mccray brings a PPG average of 12.7 into the game.

Currently, the Bulldogs’ defense holds the 242nd rank in the nation, allowing 74.5 points per game. In today’s game vs. Mercer, the Samford defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Samford made 25 free-throws vs. the Bulldogs.