The Louisville Cardinals (+3) aren’t traveling far to take on the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. This important daytime game is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and SEC Network has the TV rights.
Louisville at Kentucky Betting Odds 11/30/2019
This game’s spread is sitting at 3 points in favor of Kentucky. The Cardinals are currently getting +135 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are -155. This tilt should offer multiple in-game betting opportunities. The over/under is set at 54 points.
The Cardinals are 7-4 straight up (SU) while the Wildcats are 6-5 SU. Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this year as the Cardinals have gained 4.8 units and the Wildcats are ahead 2.7 units.
Both teams come into this matchup on two-game undefeated streaks. The Cardinals are coming off a resounding 56-34 victory over Syracuse last week. The Cards defense allowed the Orange to run for 261 yards on 52 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Offensively, Macale Cunningham completed only 11-of-20 passes for 238 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Javian Hawkins (233 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) and Hassan Hall (71 yards on eight carries, one TD) propelled the ground attack while Chatarius Atwell (five receptions, 152 yards, two TDs) and Marshon Ford (three catches, 17 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Kentucky is coming off of a 50-7 win over UT Martin. Lynn Bowden Jr. completed one-of-six passes for nine yards and one interception. Bowden Jr. (129 yards on 11 rush attempts, two TDs) and Kavosiey Smoke (40 yards on 11 carries) mounted the running game while Ahmad Wagner (one receptions, 9 yards) and Nik Ognenovic (one catch, eight yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
In terms of offensive play selection, each of these squads has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Louisville has run the ball on 64.7 percent of its offensive possessions while Kentucky has an overall rush percentage of 66.4. The Cardinals have produced 215 rush yards per game and have 21 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wildcats are logging 252 rushing yards per contest and have 27 total rush TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then the Wildcats ought to have the edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has logged 5.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.4 to opponents. The Cardinals have tallied 5.0 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.8 to opponents.
The Cards have logged 239 yards per contest through the air overall and have 28 passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 127 pass yards per outing and have eight total pass TDs.
Louisville has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 183 yards and pass for 256 yards per game. Kentucky has been a bit better than that, allowing 143.5 yards per game on the ground and 178.5 to opposing teams in the air. The Wildcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.71 to opposing QBs, while the Cardinals have given up a 7.30 ANY/A.
Cunningham is up to 1,466 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 77-of-125 attempts with 15 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. Cunningham has a sparkling 10.57 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 13.86 over the past two games.
The Cardinals have tried to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Chatarius Atwell (962 yards, 10 TDs), Javian Hawkins (1,211 rush yards, seven rush TDs) and Hassan Hall (466 rush yards, five rush TDs) have brought significant production to the offense for Louisville.
Lynn Bowden Jr. has put up 222 yards, one TD and two INTs for Kentucky. His ANY/A sits at a very poor 2.43 for the season and 5.06 over his past two games.
The Wildcats also like to keep their running backs featured. In addition to Lynn Bowden Jr. (348 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Christopher Rodriguez Jr. (261 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Asim Rose (657 rush yards, five rush TDs) have gotten a lot of looks recently.
These two squads met last year with the final outcome being a 56-10 victory for Kentucky.
Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats Free Prediction
SU Winner – Louisville, ATS Winner – Louisville, O/U – Under
Team Betting Trends
The Cardinals offense has produced 17 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wildcats have put up four such plays.
The Louisville defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Kentucky has given up one such play.
The Louisville offense has created 29 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kentucky has created 39 such runs.
The Cardinals defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Wildcats have given up 13 such runs.
The Kentucky defense has tallied 26 sacks on the year while Louisville has 23.
As a team, Louisville has produced 5.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.6 over its last two.
Kentucky has averaged 7.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 8.5 over its last two.
Over its last three matches, Kentucky is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Louisville’s last game going into it was 64. The over cashed in the team’s 56-34 victory over Syracuse.
Over its last three games, Louisville is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
The O/U for Kentucky’s last matchup going into it was 43.5. The over cashed in the team’s 50-7 win over UT Martin.