The New Mexico State Aggies (+15) are set to pay a visit to the Liberty Flames (-15) at Williams Stadium. This conference showdown kicks off at 2:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ is scheduled to have the TV rights.
New Mexico State at Liberty Betting Predictions 11/30/2019
In this Saturday Independents (FBS) game, Liberty is getting picked as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 15 points. The Aggies are also receiving +510 moneyline odds while the Flames are -750. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 65.5 points, and if one team can catch a lucky break early, it will likely create a nice live betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors are siding with the Flames, as the opening line was -13. The game’s total has yet to move after being initially placed at 65.5.
The Aggies are down 3.0 units so far in 2019 and 5-6 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-6.
The Flames have lost 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-6 ATS and also have an O/U record of 5-6.
The Aggies are 2-9 straight up (SU), including 0-1 SU against conference opponents. The Flames are 6-5 SU overall and are also 2-1 SU in conference play.
Liberty enters this contest on a zero-game winning streak while New Mexico State has lost each of its last zero. The Aggies just scored a 44-35 victory over UTEP last week. Josh Adkins completed 18 passes for only 175 yards. Jason Huntley (191 rushing yards on 14 attempts, three TDs) and Christian Gibson (61 yards on seven carries, one TD) provided the ground attack while OJ Clark (nine receptions, 72 yards) and Tony Nicholson (two catches, seven yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
One week ago, Virginia knocked off this Liberty team by a score of 55-27. The Flames defense allowed the Cavaliers to kill the clock by rushing for 227 yards on 44 attempts, including four rush TDs. PK Kier had a productive showing for Virginia, posting 82 rushing yards and a score on 10 attempts. As a group, the Flames collectively completed 18-of-47 passes for 313 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Stephen Calvert went 16-for-40 for 283 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions while Landon Brown was two-of-six for 30 yards. Frankie Hickson (88 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) mounted the running attack as Antonio Gandy-Golden (six receptions, 60 yards, one TD) and CJ Yarbrough (four catches, 83 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. New Mexico State’s run the ball on 45.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Liberty has an overall rush percentage of 47.4. The Aggies have produced 142 rush yards per game and have 15 scores on the ground this year. The Flames are putting up 137 rushing yards per game (177 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Flames should have an advantage in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded just 27 sacks while the D-line has logged 31 sacks. The Aggies O-line has given up 31 sacks and their defense has generated only 15 sacks.
The Aggies offensive scheme has averaged 222 yards through the air overall and has 12 passing scores so far. The Flames have produced 302 pass yards per outing (321.3 in the IndFBS) and have 26 total pass TDs.
New Mexico State has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 254 yards and pass for 225 yards per game. The Liberty D has allowed 235 yards per game to opposing passers and 196.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Flames are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of 6.82 to opponents, while the Aggies have allowed a 7.33 ANY/A.
Adkins is up to 2,099 pass yards this season, and has connected on 229-of-364 attempts with nine passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Adkins has a 3.73 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 7.43 over the past two outings.
The Aggies have tried to control the clock by pounding the defense with their running backs. OJ Clark (397 yards, one TD) has been a recent factor in the passing game, but backfield mates Jason Huntley (811 rush yards, eight rush TDs, two receiving TDs) and Christian Gibson (325 rush yards, one rush TD) have delivered in the New Mexico State offensive scheme.
In the other locker room, Stephen Calvert has completed 190-of-322 passes for 2,921 yards, 22 TDs and five INTs. Calvert’s ANY/A sits at 8.61 for the year and 6.35 across his past two outings.
The Flames will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Antonio Gandy-Golden (1,142 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs), Frankie Hickson (646 rush yards, eight rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Noah Frith (165 receiving yards and two TDs) have gotten a multitude of touches recently.
New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames NCAA Tip
SU Winner – Liberty, ATS Winner – Liberty, O/U – Over
The Aggies offense has tallied six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Flames have accounted for 16 such plays.
The New Mexico State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Liberty has given up 12 such plays.
The New Mexico State offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Liberty has created 13 such runs.
The Aggies defense has allowed 24 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Flames have given up 15 such runs.
The Liberty defense has notched more than twice as many sacks as New Mexico State this season (31 versus 15).
As a team, New Mexico State has rushed for 6.5 yards per attempt over its past three outings and 7.7 over its last two.
Liberty has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.9 over its last two.
In its last three matches, Liberty is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for New Mexico State’s previous game going into it was 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 44-35 victory over UTEP.
In its last three matchups, New Mexico State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Liberty’s last outing was set at 58. The over cashed in the 55-27 defeat to Virginia.
Liberty has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 42-point win over Massachusetts on November 2nd representing the lone victory over that span.