The Fighting Illini and Hawkeyes are set to face off at 7:00 ET on FS1. The Hawkeyes will host the game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA. Illinois is favored by -1 in this Big Ten conference matchup the against Iowa. The over/under for the game is set at 171.5 points.


The Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +1

This game will be played at Carver-Hawkeye Arena at 7:00 ET on Sunday, March 10th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-68 in favor of the Hawkeyes.
  • Not only will Iowa pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +1.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 171.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 143 points.

Will Illinois Shock Everyone at Carver-Hawkeye Arena?

Illinois enters this game as a one-point favorite, and they have been the favorite in 24 of their 30 games this season. They are 19-5 when favored, and they have a scoring margin of +14.4 at home compared to +5.1 on the road.

The Fighting Illini are 22-8 overall, including a 13-6 record in Big Ten play. Their non-conference record is 9-2, and they are coming off a 77-71 loss to Purdue. Over their last 10 road games, they are 5-5, and they are 3-2 in their last five.

Against the spread, Illinois has a record of 15-13-2 this season. On the road, they are 7-3-1 vs. the spread and 2-1 in their last three road games. As the favorite, the Illini are 11-12-1 vs. the spread this year and 1-2 in their last three games as the favorite.

Today’s over/under line of 171.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Illinois’ games this year (149.1). This season, their over/under record is 21-9 and their games have averaged 157.6 points. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 174 points and their over/under record during their last 10 games is 9-1.

In their recent matchup, the Illinois offense ended with 71 points against Purdue. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 45.5% and made 4 threes. Terrence Shannon Jr. is leading the team in scoring at 21.5 points per contest. Marcus Domask has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 16.2 going into the game.

The Fighting Illini’s defense is presently ranked 214th nationally, allowing an average of 73.3 points per contest. The Illinois defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 77 points and allowed Purdue to connect on 4 threes.

Do the Hawkeyes Have a Shot at a Home Win?

At home this season, Iowa has gone 14-4, and they have won their last four games at home. Overall, the Hawkeyes are 18-12, and they have won two straight games. In their last game, they beat Northwestern by a score of 87-80.

As the underdog, Iowa has gone 4-9 this season, and they are 13-17 overall when they are not favored. So far, they have been the underdog in 13 of their 30 games. Their average scoring margin at home this season is +12.2 points per game.

As the underdog, Iowa’s ATS record this season is 5-8 and their overall ATS mark is 12-17-1. At home, the Hawkeyes are 7-10-1 vs. the spread in 2019-20. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Iowa is 4-6 ATS.

Today’s over/under line of 171.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Iowa’s games this season (159.6). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 172 points. So far, 22 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line.

Iowa’s offense is coming off a strong performance, scoring 87 points against Northwestern. They had an overall field goal percentage of 55% and made 11/13 free throws. Payton Sandfort is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 16 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Tony Perkins brings a PPG average of 14.9 into the game.

Coming into the game, Iowa will be looking to improve their defense, as they are currently giving up 78.8 points per game (311st). Iowa’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Northwestern offense to knock down 53% of their shots on their way to putting up 80 points.