Looking to win big? The Bengals and Lumberjacks face off at 10:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lumberjacks are hosting the game at Idaho Central Arena in Boise, ID. Idaho State is favored by -4 in this Big Sky conference showdown. The game’s over/under is currently at 139 points.


The Pick: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +4

This game will be played at Idaho Central Arena at 10:00 ET on Saturday, March 9th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-68 in favor of the Lumberjacks.
  • Not only will Northern Arizona pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +4.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 139 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.

Can the Bengals Lock in a Win at Boise?

Idaho State comes into this game as the favorite, as they have gone 5-3 in games where they were favored this season. Their average scoring margin at home is +3.1 points per game, while on the road, they have been outscored by an average of -5.8 points per game.

So far this season, the Bengals have gone 12-19, including a 7-10 record in Big Sky play. They have lost their last two games and are just 4-14 on the road this season. In their last 10 road games, they have gone 3-7.

As the favorite this season, Idaho State has struggled vs. the spread, going just 2-6. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bengals have an ATS mark of just 3-7. On the road, Idaho State’s ATS record is 8-9-1 this year and they’ve gone 5-4-1 vs. the spread in their last 10 road games.

Idaho State’s over/under record for the season is 17-9-2, and today’s line of 139 is higher than the average over/under line in their games (136.3). So far, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 with an average of 161 points.

Compared to their season average of 70.6 points per game, Idaho State struggled in their previous game. Against Montana, the Bengals scored 65 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 42.1%. Leading the team in scoring was Kiree Huie with 20 points. Maleek Arington also added 14 points for the Bengals.

Coming into today’s game, the Idaho State defense is giving up an average of 70.2 points per contest. Against Montana in their most recent game, the Idaho State defense gave up a total of 79 points while allowing Montana to hit 60% of their shots.

Is an Upset Waiting to Happen at Home?

With a 14-18 overall record, Northern Arizona has gone 6-11 in Big Sky Conference play. The Lumberjacks have lost three straight games, and they are coming off an 82-74 loss to Northern Colorado.

So far this season, Northern Arizona has gone 7-5 at home, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games at home. On the year, the Lumberjacks have been the underdog in 23 of their 32 games, going 7-16 in those matchups.

As the underdog, Northern Arizona has gone 10-13 against the spread this season. At home, the Lumberjacks have an ATS record of 6-6 and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 5-5 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 139 is lower than the average over/under line in Northern Arizona’s games this year (144.9). Their over/under record for the season is 13-17-1. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 159 points compared to their season average of 144.7 points per game.

Northern Arizona is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 74 points versus Northern Colorado. This output is higher than their season-average of 68.9 points per game. Trenton McLaughlin led the scoring for the Lumberjacks, contributing 19 points. Additionally, Jayden Jackson chipped in with 12 points.

So far, the Lumberjacks’ defense is ranked 295th in the country at 76.9 points per contest. Against Northern Colorado, the Lumberjacks’ defense gave up 82 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Northern Colorado only made 10 free-throws.