Georgia State at Georgia Southern College Football Betting Pick 11/30/19

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The Georgia State Panthers (+8) aren’t traveling far to face their in-conference counterpart Georgia Southern Eagles at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. Kickoff for this important game is pegged for 6:00 p.m. ET and ESPN+ is scheduled to broadcast the action.

Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern Betting Odds 11/30/2019

Georgia Southern is favored by 8 points in this SBC matchup. The Panthers are currently getting +250 moneyline odds while the Eagles are -330. The over/under is set at 58 points. Based on how things are shaping up, this match should present some in-game betting opportunities.

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The Panthers are 7-4 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against conference opponents. The Eagles are 6-5 SU overall and are also 4-3 SU in conference play. Each team has posted a good return this year as the Panthers have gained 3.8 units and the Eagles are up 4.3 units.

The Panthers are coming off a resounding 28-15 victory over South Alabama last week where Dan Ellington completed 21 passes on 27 attempts for 208 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Tra Barnett (128 rushing yards on 23 attempts, one TD) and Destin Coates (33 yards on 11 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running attack while Roger Carter (seven receptions, 87 yards, one TD) and Cornelius McCoy (seven catches, 53 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.

One week ago, Arkansas State got the victory against this Georgia Southern crew by a score of 38-33. The Eagles defensive secondary let the Red Wolves air it out for 354 yards and four touchdowns. Jonathan Adams Jr. was outstanding, recording 158 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches for the Red Wolves. For Georgia Southern, Shai Werts completed 14-of-24 passes for 175 yards and three touchdowns. Wesley Kennedy III (74 rushing yards on 19 attempts) and the signal-caller Werts (158 yards on 18 carries, one TD) mounted the running attack while Mark Michaud (six receptions, 96 yards, two TDs) and Malik Murray (four catches, 22 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Georgia State’s run the ball on 61.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia Southern has a rush percentage of 82 percent. The Panthers have produced 258 rush yards per game (including 294 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 28 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Eagles are putting up 259 rush yards per contest (265 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.

If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then it appears the Panthers should hold an edge in the trenches, as their offensive line has given up just 25 sacks while the D-line logged 13 sacks. The Eagles, on the other hand, have allowed 19 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 26 occasions.

The Panthers have tallied 204 yards/contest in the air overall (197 per game versus conference opposition) and have 21 passing scores so far. The Eagles have recorded 73 pass yards per game (90.7 in the SBC) and have nine total pass TDs.

Georgia State has let opponents run for an average of 205 yards and throw for 254 yards per game. Georgia Southern has allowed 139.7 rushing yards per game and 245.5 to opponents in the air. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Panthers have given up an ANY/A of 8.08 to opposing QBs, while the Eagles are allowing an ANY/A of 7.8.

Ellington has put up 2,021 pass yards this year. He’s connected on 184-of-275 attempts with 20 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions. Ellington has a 7.27 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 3.87 over the last two games.

We’re expecting the Panthers to control the pace by putting the ball in the hands of their running backs. Tra Barnett (1,246 rush yards, 11 rush TDs) and Destin Coates (336 rush yards, six rush TDs) have really been focal points in the Georgia State offense.

Shai Werts has produced 551 yards, eight TDs and zero INTs for Georgia Southern. His ANY/A stands at 5.45 for the season and 7.80 over his past two games.

The Eagles also like to keep their RBs featured. In addition to Shai Werts (zero receiving yards), Wesley Kennedy III (606 rush yards, eight rush TDs) and J.D. King (669 rush yards, five rush TDs) have gotten quite a few touches lately.

When these two teams met last year, Georgia Southern won by three touchdowns 35-14.

Georgia State Panthers at Georgia Southern Eagles NCAA Prediction

SU Winner – Georgia Southern, ATS Winner – Georgia Southern, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Georgia Southern offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Georgia State has lost seven.

The Georgia State defensive unit has 19 sacks on the year while Georgia Southern has 18.

As a team, Georgia State has rushed for 5.9 yards per attempt across its last three games and 4.6 over its last two.

Georgia Southern has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.3 over its past two.

Over its last three matches, Georgia Southern is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The O/U for Georgia State’s last game going into it was 57.5. The under cashed in the team’s 28-15 win over South Alabama.

In its last three matchups, Georgia State is 1-2 ATS.

The Over/Under for Georgia Southern’s last match was 52.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-33 defeat to Arkansas State.

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