DXL Frisco Bowl Odds, Pick, & Prediction: Ohio vs. San Diego State

 
Wednesday, 12/19/2018 at 08:00 pm OHIO U (8-4) at SAN DIEGO ST (7-5)
Expanded Matchup Game Center Bet Now Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P RY PY TY RY PY TY
213OHIO U 54 41.2 26.7 8-4 7-5-0 7-4-0 262.2 208.4 470.6 135.5 263.8 399.3
214SAN DIEGO ST +3 22.3 21.8 7-5 3-9-0 4-8-0 162.4 191.6 354 94.5 232.9 327.4

Last Updated: 2018-12-07

frisco bowl free pickThe second ever Frisco Bowl will see San Diego State take on the University of Ohio on December 19. Last year’s inaugural contest saw Louisiana Tech below out SMU 51-10, but this should be a much closer contest as Ohio enters the game favored by 3.0.

San Diego State enters this game at 7-5 , and are losers of their last three contests. Ohio finished at 8-4 and one in their last two games to close out the season. The Bobcats are winners of five of their last six games.

High Powered Offense Has Bobcats Rolling Entering Bowl Season

The Bobcats got off to a slow start this season, defeating Howard before losing to both Virginia and Cincinnati by a combined total of just 15 points. After rebounding against Massachusetts and Kent State, Ohio lost to Northern Illinois. They would then cruise down the stretch, winning five of their last six games, while not allowing more than 14 points in three straight contests. Their only loss came against Miami (Ohio) during that stretch. That included an impressive 52-17 victory over Buffalo, the only loss the team would suffer during conference play.

Ohio University (10-2 ATS, 7-4-1 O/U) enters the Frisco Bowl with a high powered offense averaging 41.2 points per game. That has been led by the impressive performance of Nathan Rourke, who has thrown for 2225 yards and 22 touchdowns this season with just seven interceptions. Rourke has been a dual threat this season, gaining 816 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground as well. Adding to the impressive performance of this offense has been the two primary running backs, A.J. Oullette and Maleek Irons, who have combined to gain nearly 2000 yards and 20 touchdowns this season. Irons has been incredibly impressive with the ball in his hands, not fumbling on any of his 126 attempts.

This is a big-play offense, averaging 470.6 yards per game and 41.2 points per contest. However, their defense has not performed at the same level as the offense, giving up 399.6 yards per contest but only 26.7 points per game.

Aztecs Struggle Down the Stretch

The Aztecs enter the game in a bit of a rut, losing their last three games to close out the season. That includes tough losses to UNLV, Fresno State, and an overtime loss to Hawaii to finish out the year. San Diego State would lose four of their last five games by a combined total of 17 points.

The Aztecs (3-9 ATS, 4-8-0 O/U) are averaging just 22.3 points per contest but are allowing only 21.75 per game. It has been the defense that has been the big performers for San Diego State, led by Kyahya Tezino who leads the team with 8.5 sacks and in tackles with 120. The offense is led by running back Juwan Washington, who has 932 yards rushing this season, 10 touchdowns, and a 4.8 yards per carry average. Two different quarterbacks will likely see action in this game (Ryan Agnew and Christian Chapman) but, combined, they are averaging less than 270 yards per game passing.

Trends:
Ohio:
4-0 ATS in last four games in December.
5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
San Diego State:
3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games.

The Winner Prediction

There is no doubt that San Diego State has a very strong defense, but that defense has not looked very strong over the last month. Plus, offensively, they are quite challenged. No one is sure who will get the start for San Diego State, whether it will be Chapman or Agnew, but neither one of these quarterbacks is a difference maker.

Meanwhile, Ohio has a very good offense and a good enough defense to be able to slow down a struggling Aztecs group. That should give the Bobcats the clear advantage in this game so take Ohio University.

The Pick: Ohio Bobcats -3.0 (-110)

The Total

The total is set at 54.0. These two teams are averaging a combined total of over 63 points per game, but that total will not be reached in this contest. That does not mean there won’t be scoring in this contest. This should be an exciting contest, but one that the Bobcats will hold service on. Look for a 31-24 finish, just clearing the over.

The Pick: Over 54.0 points (-110)

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